So after today's theatre in the Oval office , military aid from the U.S will continue , not just the aid already in the pipe line ?Why would the USA stop aid? Thats not in the deal. What has stopped is the cash laundry operation. An operation that Zilinsky and friends currently enjoy.
If the US interests have huge investments in mining and transport of minerals from Ukraine, then two things happen. The US will protect it's interests and Russia will have no choice but to cease hostilities.
Ukraine has lost more than 90 thousand lives, not to mention irreplicable real-estate and treasured structures. In the process making Zelinsky and other oligarchs uber rich. Time for him to retire.
You can't rule out any of these countries that are under threat from Russia or China for that matter, to not look into having a Nuclear deterrent. The Ukrainians found out the hard way , other countries I'm sure are weighing their options especially now that protection from the United States is not to be assured .There won't be any nukes.
There won't be any NATO.
Ukraine will give up some of what Russia took.
If Zelinski doesn't agree now, he'll lose alot more.
And there will be a much larger NATO and a new US presence on the Polish border.
And Putin does not want that.
Trump wants Europe to take care of themselves , so if anything he will remove assets from Europe. These countries looking at the deterrent option they'll be sanctioned......We shouldn't add anything to NATO. Not until all the other NATO countries make up for their shortfall.
And no, they won't be allowed to get a nuke.
Now if Zelinski let Trump broke a deal, and sign a minerals deal, he'll have US protection in-country.
It's all about the guarantees , if they want a peace deal to last....
It is the right call not to trust Putin, but then again, we don't have to. With U.S. mineral rights in Ukraine at stake, they won't attack, as that would guarantee a severe U.S. backlash.The question is will Europe "pony up" , as it stands right now Nato is at a watershed , possible broken , maybe for only 4 years , maybe Trump will pull out of Nato , either way things will change and the alliance will have to adapt , or morph into some European led defence force
No signature as of today , but probably down the road , but it is hard to see how American interests in the minerals will be secured with no presence in the country and some of these deposits in Russian controlled Ukraine .Will Foreign investment come into the country , if a tentative peace does come , or an operational pause in the Russian view to rebuild their army .
As for Polls take with a grain of salt ,but one in feb 2025 has 81% of Americans not trusting Putin , probably the right call.
Don't need boots on the ground.So after today's theatre in the Oval office , military aid from the U.S will continue , not just the aid already in the pipe line ?
How will America protect it's interests in Ukraine , Trump has already said no boots on the ground ?
Still waiting for him to turn the tables on Putin. That vote in the UN , where the U.S sided with Russia and North Korea what strategy was that ?
The goal is for the war in Ukraine to end. That requires both Putin and Zelensky to agree to a cease fire deal. Both are going to have to give up something, but also feel like they are gaining something. Zelensky gives up Russian seized territory, but gains economic ties with the U.S./vested economic interest. Putin gives up further Ukraine incursion, but gains the territory Russia captured. Of the two, Putin will be the harder one to convince, thus he must not feel insulted by the U.S. There's the strategy, probably.Still waiting for him to turn the tables on Putin. That vote in the UN , where the U.S sided with Russia and North Korea what strategy was that ?
What interests???So after today's theatre in the Oval office , military aid from the U.S will continue , not just the aid already in the pipe line ?
How will America protect it's interests in Ukraine , Trump has already said no boots on the ground ?
Good question.What interests???
Not so sure about that " severe U.S backlash " to deter the Russians , if the mineral rights of the U.S are to be protected they'll have to ensure the Ukrainians are able to do it for them. These minerals the Russians would have no problem selling to others on the world market , just like their oil .It is the right call not to trust Putin, but then again, we don't have to. With U.S. mineral rights in Ukraine at stake, they won't attack, as that would guarantee a severe U.S. backlash.
As for Europe, the answer is yes, they will pony up, because they have no choice, if they believe that a Russian takeover of Ukraine would be an existential threat to NATO membered countries. Not that Russia would ever attack a NATO country, but that is their fear, and that is probably enough.
And the U.S. doesn't need a "presence" in Ukraine to receive rare earth minerals from there, any more than we need a presence in Taiwan in order to receive over $100 billion in imported goods per year from that country, despite China's interest in taking it over, which, by the way, is the reason they haven't.
Russia also offered the U.S. rare earth minerals, so that wouldn't be so strange, and if we took them up on it, it would probably only ensure that they wouldn't want to provoke us, so as not to screw up that deal, much like the U.S./China relationship.
And speaking of polls, a Gallup poll from last December showed that most Americans would prefer we end the war in Ukraine quickly, even if that means Russia keeps the territory they've already captured: https://news.gallup.com/poll/654575/americans-favor-quick-end-russia-ukraine-war.aspx.
Mineral rights deal......What interests???
So that vote was to appease the Russians ? A vote on the fact that Russia was the aggressor and invaded Ukraine ..... even the Chinese abstained on that one .The goal is for the war in Ukraine to end. That requires both Putin and Zelensky to agree to a cease fire deal. Both are going to have to give up something, but also feel like they are gaining something. Zelensky gives up Russian seized territory, but gains economic ties with the U.S./vested economic interest. Putin gives up further Ukraine incursion, but gains the territory Russia captured. Of the two, Putin will be the harder one to convince, thus he must not feel insulted by the U.S. There's the strategy, probably.
Wagner's , replacements are still in Africa doing business , in fact the leaders of these countries with "Wagner " presence voted with Russia , North Korea and the U.S all together at the U.N .I am looking at history.
The Wagner Group was basically Putin's private assassination group and Trump literally killed them.
Russia was making money off of oil sales and Trump flooded the world market with cheap oil and almost bankrupted the country.
Trump was much harder on Russia than any President since Ronald Reagan when he destroyed the Soviet Union. Bush, Bush, Biden, Clinton or Obama ever thwart Russia? No. But Trump did.
Whether that deal comes or not who knows , but no western business / company is going to invest their money into Ukraine unless it's security is addressed, whether western troops on the ground or sustained weapons supply.Good question.
US is not an actual military ally of Ukraine.
US is a minimal trading partner with Ukraine. But Ukraine's main exports of food, primarily went to Africa and their grains were lower price and lower quality than the European grains.
Hunter Biden, through his Burisma deal to sell access to the President, enriched his family fortunes but the nation, overall, does not have a lot of interests in Ukraine at the moment.
Trump proposes interests in their minerals, and offers a co-sharing where we go in with US companies to invest and develop and then share the profits. But that was pretty much blown up today by Zelensky.
What people seem to miss is that, one, Putin will get to claim victory so his incentive will be nil. Two, Putin will be against Trump, so he knows he can't reinvade. Three, the whole of the EU will be arming during the next 3.5 years, and Ukraine will be armed. So there will be an actual, credible defense, especially considering that Ukraine will have experienced/battle hardened troops. So security comes from lots of weapons, improved overall EU forces, improved NATO forces, and add American companies on the ground with infrastructure and citizens that need to be protected and all of a sudden you have massive deterrence added to the security.Whether that deal comes or not who knows , but no western business / company is going to invest their money into Ukraine unless it's security is addressed, whether western troops on the ground or sustained weapons supply.
"IF" and that what it hinges on , the Americans provide Ukraine with the necessary weapons over the course of the next 4 years or what ever it takes , to enable them to defend themselves , I agree . That is also the only way these American companies will invest as they have been burnt before when they worked in Russia and need the securityWhat people seem to miss is that, one, Putin will get to claim victory so his incentive will be nil. Two, Putin will be against Trump, so he knows he can't reinvade. Three, the whole of the EU will be arming during the next 3.5 years, and Ukraine will be armed. So there will be an actual, credible defense, especially considering that Ukraine will have experienced/battle hardened troops. So security comes from lots of weapons, improved overall EU forces, improved NATO forces, and add American companies on the ground with infrastructure and citizens that need to be protected and all of a sudden you have massive deterrence added to the security.
Military action should be, and usually is, the last resort. The U.S. can impose various sanctions on Russia, including freezing assets of individuals and companies, banning exports of technology, and restricting financial transactions with Russian banks. All of this, and more, hurts Russia's economy, and they are already hurting enough. That, probably more than the threat of violence, would keep Russia from invading Ukraine further.Not so sure about that " severe U.S backlash " to deter the Russians , if the mineral rights of the U.S are to be protected they'll have to ensure the Ukrainians are able to do it for them. These minerals the Russians would have no problem selling to others on the world market , just like their oil .
As for the Chinese , they are watching this play out , seeing America's response , if Russia comes out a "winner" in this , and weighing how many years of sanctions they would endure over invading Taiwan . After all that and when militarily ready they would invade , only a strong American presence may deter them .
As the future of NATO at this moment is in flux , many of these East European countries face the reality of the Russians , but Russia is incapable of any invasion until they rebuild their military , 5-10 years ? , gives Europe time to do the same.
Polls are polls , as for a quick deal , not sure it's possible , one that lasts when in place might worth waiting for.