• Please be sure to read the rules and adhere to them. Some banned members have complained that they are not spammers. But they spammed us. Some even tried to redirect our members to other forums. Duh. Be smart. Read the rules and adhere to them and we will all get along just fine. Cheers. :beer: Link to the rules: https://www.forumsforums.com/threads/forum-rules-info.2974/

Trump might just win popular vote

Patriot said:
In 2020, Biden won the popular vote by 3.4% over Trump, assuming the vote tally was accurate. Yet, Biden was ahead in the RCP average by 7.4%, which means the polls favored Biden by exactly 4%.

This means that Trump, being up .1% today in the popular vote, should translate to a popular vote win of 4.1%, if the election were held today.

There are only four variables that could change this:

1. The polls don't favor the Dem the same way they did four years ago.
2. People come out to vote in different proportions (Republican vs Democrat) than they did four years ago.
3. Something happens that severely changes the race in the next 9 days.
4. There is an unprecedented effort, presumably on behalf of the Dems, to rig the election in their favor.
Click to expand...
I disagree.

There is a 5th option.

The 5th option is that the pollsters have learned something from their mistakes, changed, and are more accurate this year.

I believe, at least with some of the best, most proven polls, they have improved. If that is true, and I am only saying I believe they probably have taken, at least some, corrective measures, then the race may be closer than the 4.1% spread from the prior election cycle. Again, even if they only partially fixed their polling, this race is well inside the 'margin of error' at this point.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Doc
Melensdad said:
I disagree.

There is a 5th option.

The 5th option is that the pollsters have learned something from their mistakes, changed, and are more accurate this year.

I believe, at least with some of the best, most proven polls, they have improved. If that is true, and I am only saying I believe they probably have taken, at least some, corrective measures, then the race may be closer than the 4.1% spread from the prior election cycle. Again, even if they only partially fixed their polling, this race is well inside the 'margin of error' at this point.
Click to expand...
That was variable #1. If all, or even most, of the pollsters have changed their methodology to more accurately reflect voting outcomes, then you would expect that they would agree with each other, or be very close. But of the up to 14 different polls that make up the RCP average as I write this, there is a spread of over 4 points between them. They must not all be using the same methodology if that kind of range exists. At least some of them must still be inaccurate.

This tells me that while some of them may have changed, most of them haven't, and so they're likely to continue to skew the estimate of voting outcomes in favor of the Dem. The only question is by how much.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Doc
Patriot said:
That was variable #1. If all, or even most, of the pollsters have changed their methodology to more accurately reflect voting outcomes, then you would expect that they would agree with each other, or be very close. But of the up to 14 different polls that make up the RCP average as I write this, there is a spread of over 4 points between them. They must not all be using the same methodology if that kind of range exists. At least some of them must still be inaccurate.

This tells me that while some of them may have changed, most of them haven't, and so they're likely to continue to skew the estimate of voting outcomes in favor of the Dem. The only question is by how much.
Click to expand...
Do not assume all, or even most, of the pollsters changed.

Several pollsters have long standing historic biases and likely will not change.

Most of the focus should be on Atlas Intel and Rasmussen.

A couple others are generally close-ish. But Atlas and Rasmussen are actually accurate. Both have this election within the margin of error. As for the other pollsters, generally discount them until they prove themselves worthy. And, as of now, 80% of them are probably not worthy of consideration.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Doc
Melensdad said:
Do not assume all, or even most, of the pollsters changed.

Several pollsters have long standing historic biases and likely will not change.

Most of the focus should be on Atlas Intel and Rasmussen.

A couple others are generally close-ish. But Atlas and Rasmussen are actually accurate. Both have this election within the margin of error. As for the other pollsters, generally discount them until they prove themselves worthy. And, as of now, 80% of them are probably not worthy of consideration.
Click to expand...
I am definitely not assuming that the polls are accurate. I maintain that most of them are off in favor of the the Dem. As the average has Trump slightly up, then he's probably up more than that.
 
Not quite good enough, we need North Carolina to get up to 312 Electoral College votes, and that would make the election a DECISIVE victory for Trump. I don't want this to be close. I want this to be clear and decisive and indisputable. I want the election called before midnight on the night of the election, even if Arizona takes 2 weeks to count all their ballots. It needs to be too big to steal.

For whatever it is worth, Real Clear Politics also updated their data and their E.C. map. Yesterday it had Trump with 312 E.C. votes. Today it has Trump with 297. Atlas has it with Trump at 296.


 
I'm sorry but I've got trouble believing Trump is going to do so well as to carry the Rust Belt, yet lose NC, a state he has carried twice and then the aftermath of Helene. Just not buying it.

I'm not alone in this belief either. Atlas Intel is good, very good but they blew it with NC.
 
tiredretired said:
I'm sorry but I've got trouble believing Trump is going to do so well as to carry the Rust Belt, yet lose NC, a state he has carried twice and then the aftermath of Helene. Just not buying it.

I'm not alone in this belief either. Atlas Intel is good, very good but they blew it with NC.
Click to expand...
I predict that not only will Trump win NC, but he may at least come very close to winning VA, NH, and MN. I base that on the difference between the polls and outcomes in 2020. So, unless they've really improved the accuracy of the polls, this will be a Trump landslide. Of course, don't take if for granted. Vote vote vote for Trump!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top