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Trump might just win popular vote
- Thread starter Patriot
- Start date
Multiple polls, all well inside of "margin of error" show that Trump could potentially win the popular vote.
My hope, and this has been my hope all along, is that that, while I strongly support the Electoral College, I do think for this election we need a President who wins BOTH the popular and the E.C. votes. Should Trump win both, and it looks possible, barring a "last minute ballot drop" or some other "steal" by the tricksters, it would take a lot of energy out of the left wing riots. He would have a "mandate" of the "majority" and that will relegate the riots to the hard core leftist criminal element.
My hope, and this has been my hope all along, is that that, while I strongly support the Electoral College, I do think for this election we need a President who wins BOTH the popular and the E.C. votes. Should Trump win both, and it looks possible, barring a "last minute ballot drop" or some other "steal" by the tricksters, it would take a lot of energy out of the left wing riots. He would have a "mandate" of the "majority" and that will relegate the riots to the hard core leftist criminal element.
Patriot
Well-known member
Yes, if Trump wins the popular vote they won't have the talking point: "Most Americans wanted the other candidate."
However, I think that even if Trump wins the popular vote, there will still be that crazy TDS fueled left that will go nuts. They have been calling him Hitler for so long they actually believe it. And what wouldn't you do to stop Hitler?
tiredretired
The Old Salt
Follow the data from YT channels like Baris & Barnes more than the polls. Most polls are fake or inaccurate. The goods ones are good but reflect old news from 3, 4, 5 days ago if not more. Data is real time and things are happening fast. Donald is controlling the news cycle and narrative every day. Rogan today, MSG tomorrow, 2-3 rallies a day drawing huge crowds while Kackles is reduced to vomiting the some old garbage, Trump is Hitler.
Donald dodges bullets, Kackles dodges questions.
The woke fascist regime is about to finally end. It's over. They had a good run. All the mainstream media is starting to get getting in line. They have little choice. See Anderson Cooper. LA Times refuses to endorse Kackles. See WAPO who refuses to endorse Kackles. Jeff Bezos is no fool. He sees the handwriting on the wall
They know Trump is winning and that Elon is going to buy more of the mainstream media. They want to remain employed. Money talks, bullshit walks. See Tesla stock. See DJT stock.
SpaceX will get more Gov't contracts and Boeing will be out of the picture for being woke and DEI infested.
See early voting on https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ is up in Miami Dade,with a shot of carrying the county and looking to carry the state by over 15 if not more. RCP says Donald is now leading in all 7 swingers. Data is showing Virginia could turn RED.
California and New York are trending more toward Donald but most likely will stay Blue this cycle but will further pad Donald's Pop Vote margin.
He's up big everywhere. It's looking like a LANDSLIDE, check the numbers. WSJ has Don +3. They had Biden up +10 last cycle at this time. Kamala and her regime are done. It's over. Everyone already knows it.
Tesla stock will triple from here. Elon will gladly move all domestic sales Teslas to the USA if that is not the case now.
Buy and make money.
Donald dodges bullets, Kackles dodges questions.
The woke fascist regime is about to finally end. It's over. They had a good run. All the mainstream media is starting to get getting in line. They have little choice. See Anderson Cooper. LA Times refuses to endorse Kackles. See WAPO who refuses to endorse Kackles. Jeff Bezos is no fool. He sees the handwriting on the wall
They know Trump is winning and that Elon is going to buy more of the mainstream media. They want to remain employed. Money talks, bullshit walks. See Tesla stock. See DJT stock.
SpaceX will get more Gov't contracts and Boeing will be out of the picture for being woke and DEI infested.
See early voting on https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ is up in Miami Dade,with a shot of carrying the county and looking to carry the state by over 15 if not more. RCP says Donald is now leading in all 7 swingers. Data is showing Virginia could turn RED.
California and New York are trending more toward Donald but most likely will stay Blue this cycle but will further pad Donald's Pop Vote margin.
He's up big everywhere. It's looking like a LANDSLIDE, check the numbers. WSJ has Don +3. They had Biden up +10 last cycle at this time. Kamala and her regime are done. It's over. Everyone already knows it.
Tesla stock will triple from here. Elon will gladly move all domestic sales Teslas to the USA if that is not the case now.
Buy and make money.
Last edited:
Patriot
Well-known member
Good points. I would add that betting odds on RCP right now have it 60 to 38.8 in favor of Trump.
tiredretired
The Old Salt
Yes, good point. I follow Polymarket and post a few penny ante bets.
Presidential Election Winner 2024
Polymarket | This is a market on predicting the winner of the 2024 presidential election.
polymarket.com
Trump 64%. Harris 36%.
I am in the same boat as you.
The vote that we see in the evening after the polls close may not resemble the vote we wake up to the next morning.
The "win" must be bigger than the 'cheat' for Trump to actually win. And that is a tall order.
The CHEAT is real in North Carolina where the Democrats are calling for emergency polling places but then blocking them . . .
thefederalist.com
Dems In NC's Helene Disaster Area Block Early Voting Locations
The havoc Hurricane Helene wrought in western North Carolina hasn't stopped Democrats from blocking approval of emergency early voting sites.
thefederalist.com
Kevlar
Well-known member
If it was my country, I’d be organizing as many people as I could to hang around after the polls close and watch and record everything that goes on after. Would be hard for them to pull off what they did last time if there was 20 people at every station with a camera rolling.
State laws vary. We are 50 mini-countries, each with their own voting laws, inside these United States. In some areas it is very hard for one party to cheat. In other states its pretty easy.
Trump won the last election, but like Joseph Stalin said:
IT'S NOT WHO VOTES THAT COUNTS. IT'S WHO COUNTS THE VOTES
I hope we can get a handle on this and stop voter fraud.
Patriot
Well-known member
Comparing the last election's results with the polls in the last election, it shows the polls were off, in Biden's favor, by between three and eight points in the popular vote for the nation and in each swing state. Now, Trump is at least that much further ahead in the polls than last time. So, they'd have to cheat about twice as much this time in order to make up the difference. And with greater scrutiny on the integrity of the election this time, they'd have to be Houdini to get away with a cheat that big.
Too Big to Rig!
tiredretired
The Old Salt
Trump is now ahead in the RCP polling average for the NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE. He's 7.9 points ahead of where he was at this point in 2020 and 5.5 points ahead of where he was at this point 2016. LANDSLIDE INCOMING.
Patriot
Well-known member
I agree, as long as we don't take it for granted and vote. If you haven't voted, vote. If you know somebody who hasn't voted (and you know they'd vote for Trump), help them get out and vote. If you think they'd vote for Harris, tell them to vote on Nov 6th.
Now from Rasmussen, which is considered to be a GOP favorable poll, and also is considered to be the 2nd most accurate poll. Harris has overtaken Trump with a very slim lead.
Election 2024
Vice President Kamala Harris has pushed into the lead over former President Donald Trump in the latest daily tracking poll of the 2024 presidential election.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the election were held today, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for Harris and 47% would vote for Trump. Two percent (2%) say they’d vote for some other candidate and three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
In the previous survey, Trump led by two points, with 49% to Harris’s 47%. This is the first time Harris has led since Rasmussen Reports began its daily tracking poll on October 15. Each daily result reflects a four-night average of nightly samples.
Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) or follow us on Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.
The survey of 2,745 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on October 21-24, 2024 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.
tiredretired
The Old Salt
OBAMA: "If you like your doctor...you can keep your doctor."
BIDEN: "If you like your Nurse-Practitioner...you can keep your Nurse Practitioner."
HARRIS: "If you like your United Nations trained Somalian First Aid worker...you can keep her.
What will Democrats promise next ?
BIDEN: "If you like your Nurse-Practitioner...you can keep your Nurse Practitioner."
HARRIS: "If you like your United Nations trained Somalian First Aid worker...you can keep her.
What will Democrats promise next ?
tiredretired
The Old Salt
Latest RCP this morning reflecting the first time in 8 years Trump has led in the Pop Vote:
Patriot
Well-known member
Trump's surge in the polls may be connected to his winning of Independents. In the three "blue wall" states of WI, MI, and PA, Trump is winning Independents by 1 point, whereas this time four years ago Biden was winning Independents by 11 points in those states.
I don't mean to sound any alarms but I'm not convinced that Trump will win the popular vote. Nor am I convinced he will will the Electoral College. I think he clearly stands a very good chance of winning the E.C. based on publicly available data, but good chance and convinced are two different things. As for the popular vote, again, I'm not convinced. I can 'keep hope alive' that he will win both, but these polls are incredibly close so it really just boils down to voting and getting your friends and family, of similar mindset, to actually go vote.
The 2 more accurate polls in the Real Clear Politics are #1, Atlas Intel, which has been the most accurate poll over the past several election cycles, and Rasmussen which has been the 2nd most accurate.
Rasmussen's newest poll shows Trump behind 1 point.
Atlas Intel's poll is nearly 2 weeks old and may not reflect the current situation.
The 2 more accurate polls in the Real Clear Politics are #1, Atlas Intel, which has been the most accurate poll over the past several election cycles, and Rasmussen which has been the 2nd most accurate.
Rasmussen's newest poll shows Trump behind 1 point.
Atlas Intel's poll is nearly 2 weeks old and may not reflect the current situation.
tiredretired
The Old Salt
At this point watch the data more than the polls. Data is indicating a huge shift in early voting trends, Republican strength in getting low propensity voters to vote. Polls, even the newest ones do not seem to be reflecting what is going on versus 2020 and 2016.
I'm trying to watch everything I can watch.
I voted early for the first time in my life just to make sure I got to vote. Never waited so long to vote than I did for this vote.
Most of the people in line with me were older, white, rural. I only saw a few people that would normally be considered low propensity based on their apparent age.
tiredretired
The Old Salt
Peoples Pundit aka Baris & Barnes on YouTube if you have the time. Weekly podcast will go live tomorrow afternoon. They can droll on and on so I bounce around but you will get some great swing state trends and in depth info found nowhere else. These guys are good. Here's a link from their last show 2 days ago.
Patriot
Well-known member
In 2020, Biden won the popular vote by 3.4% over Trump, assuming the vote tally was accurate. Yet, Biden was ahead in the RCP average by 7.4%, which means the polls favored Biden by exactly 4%.
This means that Trump, being up .1% today in the popular vote, should translate to a popular vote win of 4.1%, if the election were held today.
There are only four variables that could change this:
1. The polls don't favor the Dem the same way they did four years ago.
2. People come out to vote in different proportions (Republican vs Democrat) than they did four years ago.
3. Something happens that severely changes the race in the next 9 days.
4. There is an unprecedented effort, presumably on behalf of the Dems, to rig the election in their favor.
Regarding #1 variable, they might have tweaked the methodology for running some of the polls, but it's unlikely that they've all changed that much to make much of a difference.
Regarding #2 variable, it appears in the early voting that the only proportional voting difference from four years ago will go in favor of Trump.
Regarding #3 variable, they've thrown everything at Trump already, so I can't imagine anything that's going to change voters' minds against him at this point, but I can imagine some things that might change more minds against Harris.
Regarding #4 variable, I would bet that the Left is doing everything it can to stop "Orange Hitler," and consider cheating a means that justify the end, if that end is preventing Trump from winning. However, we are more ready for it this time, and there are more poll watchers and other checks on the integrity of the election than there was four years ago. Everyone is hyper alert to signs of fraud. So, I don't see them being able to get away with enough fraud to matter.
Conclusion: Trump is going to win the popular vote. That's my take.