OFFICIAL 2024 Election Results Thread

[Melensdad]

If you vote today:

• HOW LONG ARE THE LINES?
• Can you report on any "enthusiasm" for either candidate you experienced while at the polls?
• In what state did you vote?

Polls are open on the east coast (Eastern Standard Time).
Polls are open in middle of the nation (Central Standard Time)
Polls just opened in Mountain states.
West Coast states will open soon.

PRE-OPENING the swing states are showing these numbers for the SWING STATES:




Republicans are currently BEHIND in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Republicans are currently AHEAD in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Nevada.

ASSUMING that voter turnout TODAY follows the normal voting patterns, Republicans should celebrate today.

But the question remains, how many of the "early voters" are traditional "election day voters" who just decided to go in early? If many of the early voters are normal election day voters then the results from today will be disappointing for the Republicans.


For whatever it is worth, Polymarket's latest graph, as of the opening of the polls this morning, has Trump at nearly 62% chance of winning

 

[Melensdad]

Election Day "irregularities" and "issues" now being reported across Pennsylvania.

HOTLINE for PA voters:


4 GOP election works, appointed by the court, were kicked out of a Philadelphia polling place?


Allegheny County PA polls have incomplete paperwork?


Luzerne County PA polls not open, the election judge had an emergency?

 

[waybomb]

The fix is in; the fix is big.

 

[Melensdad]

As of the polls opening, most focus is on the President, but the SENATE looks likely to flip from the Democrats to the GOP, even if just barely. The HOUSE looks likely to remain with the GOP, even if just barely.

PRESIDENT:

• FiveThirtyEight’s model assigns an 49% probability of a Trump win, and a 50% probability of Harris winning.
• Real Clear Politics polling average shows 59.7% probability for Trump, 38.9% for Harris.
• Nate Silver sees a 54% and 46% chance respectively.

SENATE:

• Republicans are clearly favoured to win the Senate, with FiveThirtyEight averages assigning a 90% probability, while the House is neck and neck, with Republicans seeing a 52% likelihood and Democrats 48%.
• Real Clear is showing the GOP picking up 3 Senate seats. Currently Dems hold 51/GOP 49.
• Likely outcome, depending on the polls/prevaricators show the GOP with 51 or 52 Senate Seats

HOUSE:

• All 435 seats are up for grabs, with 218 needed to win a majority. Entering the 2024 election, Republicans hold a slim majority with 220 seats, and Democrats hold 212, with 3 seats vacant.
• According to The Cook Political Report, 175 seats are seen as ‘Solid Democrats’, 191 ‘Solid Republican’, 17 ‘Likely Democrat’, 9 ‘Likely Republican’, 13 ‘Lean Democrat', 8 ‘Lean Republican’, leaving 22 ‘toss-ups’ (10 of those are currently Democrat: AK-AL, CO-08, ME-02, MI-08, NC-01, NM-02, PA-07, PA-08, VA-07, WA-03; and 12 of those are currently Republican: AZ-01, AZ-06, CA-13, CA-22, CA-27, CA-41, CA-45, IA-01, IA-03, NY-19, OR-05, PA-10).
• Real Clear Politics polling average is very similar to Cook Political Report.

 

[waybomb]

God let's pray and hope.
And IF my orange guy wins. I pray he comes in like a stream roller and drains the swamp. He did not get much of that done last time.

 

[waybomb]

And if it turns out this way, firefighters will be busy everywhere that was blue. Our insurance rates are going up again.

 

[tiredretired]

PA is turning out to be a disaster for the Dems. They only picked up a net gain of 2400 votes yesterday. They were hoping for a minimum of 50K and fell far short of that. Overall, the early vote total lead overall for the Dems is around 413,000. This is down from 1.1 Million in 2020.

Remember, Trump only lost PA by 80K in 2020 with the Dems having a 1.1 Million vote lead going into Election Day.

Top Pollster In Disbelief Over Stunning Data From Pennsylvania: ‘These Numbers Are Real?’

Vote-by-mail numbers coming out of Pennsylvania are indicating that Vice President Kamala Harris is in trouble, with one pollster who reacted in total disbelief. Heading into Election Day, Democrats were expecting a net lead of 50,000 votes but instead lead by just over 2,400 after Monday’s...

trendingpoliticsnews.com

 

[Melensdad]

At least $250 MILLION DOLLARS have been wagered on the various betting websites.

The money is on a Trump victory.

The POLLING data is very close. The BETTING dollars show a big spread. It will be interesting to see which is more accurate.

 

[waybomb]

It's all about emotion. I can't forget how psyched we all were about the red wave. It's all about emotion.

 

[pixie]

I got to vote !! Last election I wasn't a resident anywhere.

My town has slightly more than 300 residents. The town hall has beautiful real pine paneling inside. There were 5 voting booths: 2 stand-up, 2 sit with oak chairs and a handicap tent. 2 other people voting, 5 election officials and some stand-around-ers.

Fingers crossed for the good guys. Puppets are scary and should be in the trash.

 

[Melensdad]

It's all about emotion. I can't forget how psyched we all were about the red wave. It's all about emotion.

Well here is another set of emotionless data points.

Predictions for the 2024 Presidential Elections - Live Forecast — Race to the WH

A live data-driven election forecast predicting the winner of the election. Interactive and Updated Daily. One of the Most Accurate Election Forecasters in 2020 and 2022.

www.racetothewh.com

They project HOUSE will flip to Democrats.
They project the SENATE will flip to the Republicans
They project that HARRIS will win the election






At the ELECTION BETTING ODDS website they are suggesting the HOUSE will flip to the Democrats and that Donald Trump will be President. SENATE will flip to the Republicans. Betting websites are emotionally driven.

Election Betting Odds

Live betting odds on the 2024 presidential election, and more! Who will win? Biden, Trump, Harris, DeSantis?...

electionbettingodds.com

 

[waybomb]

Somebody is going to be correct. I'll bet on that.

 

[bczoom]

Somebody is going to be correct. I'll bet on that.

Somebody is going to cheat. I'll bet on that.

 

[Melensdad]

Still very early in the day, but a pretty interesting sign.

 

[tiredretired]

The early voting is pointing to a Trump win in the swing states. For starters AZ will be called for Trump as soon as the polls close there at 9;00 PM

Watch VA. Polls close there at 7PM EST. If Trump is over performing there (Dems +5) it could be a real good sign of what is to come.

 

[NorthernRedneck]

Why does this feel like all of north America is waiting for the results of an std test?

 

[pirate_girl]

Why does this feel like all of north America is waiting for the results of an std test?

I had a meme for that lol

 

[pirate_girl]

Somebody is going to cheat. I'll bet on that.

I'm afraid.
I'm very afraid.
I voted.
However, I know how the cheating machine works.
We've got the old school Dems working behind the scenes with their plethora of cheats who want to win any WAY they can.

 

[NorthernRedneck]

The big question is how many dead people vote this time? I guess we'll see how many votes tge dems need.

 

[Melensdad]

The big question is how many dead people vote this time? I guess we'll see how many votes tge dems need.

That is a CHICAGO thing. The dead vote early and often there.

And Illinois is a state so corrupt and in the pockets of the Democratic party that the dead no longer need to vote. Illinois will cast its votes for Kamal Harris about 5 minutes after the polls for the state close. Sad, but the city of Chicago and surrounding Cook County are solid 'blue' while the entire rural population is solid 'red' for Trump. But Chicago/Cook overwhelm the rest of the population.

When I cross the state line west of me all I see are pro-TRUMP signs in yards, on farms, along roadways, etc. in RURAL Illinois.

 

[Melensdad]

Is Pennsylvania going to be a big win for Trump?

FOX News is reporting that the math is in Trump's favor based on the past couple of elections.

Would this Pennsylvania margin be too big to cheat?






Westward to Nevada, the rural vote in Nevada is heavily favoring Trump. Clark County (Las Vegas) heavily leans to (at least historically) toward the Democratic candidates. That does not seem to be the case today. Clark County is leaning toward Harris, that much is clear, but it is barely making a dent in the GOP votes. The state is clearly a TOSS UP, but if the rural voters turn out, Trump can win.

 

[FrancSevin]

That is a CHICAGO thing. The dead vote early and often there.

And Illinois is a state so corrupt and in the pockets of the Democratic party that the dead no longer need to vote. Illinois will cast its votes for Kamal Harris about 5 minutes after the polls for the state close. Sad, but the city of Chicago and surrounding Cook County are solid 'blue' while the entire rural population is solid 'red' for Trump. But Chicago/Cook overwhelm the rest of the population.

When I cross the state line west of me all I see are pro-TRUMP signs in yards, on farms, along roadways, etc. in RURAL Illinois.

Just outside of Chicago there is a really nice place. It's called Illinois!

 

[Melensdad]

Not sure if this means much in our national election.
The news out of Guam is mixed.
The legislature flipped to the GOP.
The straw vote for President went to Harris by just over 3% points.

Exit Polls: Guam GOP Flips the Legislature for First Time in 16 Years

The GOP in Guam flipped the legislature for the first time in over ten years, according to exit polls and election results.

www.breitbart.com

 

[Melensdad]

RECOUNT of Absentee Ballots happening in Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Thread by @AlexanderShur on Thread Reader App

@AlexanderShur: 🧵Just before 2 p.m., an election observer noticed a panel on tabulators in Milwaukee's central count weren't properly closed. The panel that wasn't closed contains tabulators' on/off switches. They w...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[Melensdad]

“The confidence gap remains,” says @MarkHalperin of the moods of the opposing camps at Mar a Lago and in Wilmington. “Republicans I talked to are sending me their Electoral College guesses. They’re all above 270, some as high as 320 or 322. I don’t have a single Democrat emailing me an Electoral College map. They say they think they’re going to win, but they’re not as confident.”

 

[Melensdad]

MORE election irregularities in WISCONSIN


"
New: a citizen living in the City of Kenosha has filed a 5.06 civil complaint against the City Clerk and the Deputy Clerk. They both failed to conduct the mandatory pre-election voting machine testing per Wis Stats 5.84. Of the 36 tabulators they tested one. Even the one they did test was done incorrectly. 5.84 is mandatory.

They both failed to provide the public with proper notice to boot. 7.15(1)(d) is mandatory. See other 2 tweets here - Any use of the untested voting machines today they will be falsely certifying the election in 10 days from now. Putting themselves in huge legal jeopardy personally also. Citizens have the right to sue them for civil rights violations and for violating election laws.

They are not using Verizon (the only approved vendor per the Wis. Election Commission). Instead they are using the police and fire dept. broadband. Another election law violation. 5.91 is mandatory, as is 5.91(10). The other WIS counties that modem their results are using the same or other non-approved communication vendors. This is how the Feds are seeing the election results on election nights: CIS, DHS, CISA, Crowdstrike, Falcon Endpoint Services, Fusion Centers at the Madison airport and across from the Sheriff's office in Milwaukee. Who knows how to spell F i r s t N e t ?

@DonMillis and @BobSpindell are Commissioners of the Wis. Election Commission. The world is seeing now how utterly clueless they are.
@RonJohnsonWI

@RepKrug

@SenKnodl
"

 

[Melensdad]

Indiana = Trump

 

[Melensdad]

Trump predicted to win the election by a celebrity baby hippo!?!

I don't make this stuff up, I just post the news.

 

[tommu56]

I was #8 at 7:30AM this morning my wife was 80 something at 8:30 the pole worker said to her we weren't in the 80's at 3:00 pm last year
Poles just closed at 9:00PM I'm running over to see the tally in our rural area

 

[Doc]

So far so good ....at least until wheel barrels full of ballots arrive after midnight.