# The market is down 8% ...



## jpr62902

... over the last month.  What are you doing about it?  Selling off?  Battening down the hatches?  Or scooping up the bargains?

 I picked up JPM @ $54.81.  Not bad with a forward P/E below 10 and right @ book value.

 Anyone else see any good deals out there?


----------



## EastTexFrank

Not even looking.  

I disposed of all my disposable income for this year building a lake and a barn.  Actually, I have a meeting with my financial advisor tomorrow morning and we're going to use the little free cash sitting around in my portfolio to strengthen the position in some stocks that I already own.


----------



## 300 H and H

It has occured to me that the last time crude oil prices lost as much value as they have, the stock market crashed. This was back in 08...

At the time some advisors warned of the impending crash, based off what had happened to crude prices. Then I found this...

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article40370.htm

It states that the junk bond market is the thing to watch now. JFYI.

Regards, Kirk


----------



## Catavenger

Since banks now pay such a low rate of interest, I recently put some money I had in the bank in a Merrill Lynch account. I really don't know what I'm doing. I hope I didn't make a BIG mistake.


----------



## 300 H and H

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-...ded-last-financial-crisis-are-happening-again

These guys are doom and gloomers, but I think it wise to look at what is being said. It's not good news for equities. 

Commodities do well when the equity markets tank. Fortunately I produce commoditites on my farm, and may find insulation from the equities markets in my back yard....

Tempted to get on the side lines by selling out my stocks, and going short with SH once again. Last time I was wrong about doing that, and it had a cost. But if one is correct in predicting a fall in the market, SH will be a big winner... as it shorts the S&P 500 stock index at 2 to 1....

So I am a good bit nervous about the market...

Regards, Kirk


----------



## jpr62902

300 H and H said:


> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-...ded-last-financial-crisis-are-happening-again
> 
> These guys are doom and gloomers, but I think it wise to look at what is being said. It's not good news for equities.
> 
> Commodities do well when the equity markets tank. Fortunately I produce commoditites on my farm, and may find insulation from the equities markets in my back yard....
> 
> Tempted to get on the side lines by selling out my stocks, and going short with SH once again. Last time I was wrong about doing that, and it had a cost. *But if one is correct in predicting a fall in the market*, SH will be a big winner... as it shorts the S&P 500 stock index at 2 to 1....
> 
> So I am a good bit nervous about the market...
> 
> Regards, Kirk



And who can do that?  I know I can't.  I only bought a short fund once (SKT), back in 2012.  I sold it a month later.  It's now trading at a third of what I paid for it.

 If you look at the charts of these short funds, they're on a steady decline, with spikes when there's a _major_ economic event (like the '09 stock market plummet).  So lots of risk, with very narrow opportunities for reward.  Not my style of investing.

 You said you tried SH before but lost.  Why do it again?  Why sell good companies for a small chance to make a big score?  To me, that's gambling, not investing.  But, if you've got the bank to play like that, more power to ya!


----------



## 300 H and H

Last time I just moved some funds to SH and my stocks made money while SH drifted lower. Probably do the same today, and keep the stocks and buy into some SH just in case...


Kinda like and insurace policy I think..

Regards, Kirk


----------



## Tweeker

Not happy with Apple, still in the black but just barely, time for a stay in 
'the house of pain"


----------



## Kane

Based upon my sources and Ron Paul, the Rapture cometh. (giggle)

Sell your equities NOW and stock up on noodles, forty-five and toilet paper.


----------



## waybomb

Thanks to skf, my paper loss today was only 0.56%.
 If something happened today and I had to liquidate the hedge would have saved me arse. 
Also got lucky that all but one of my holdings did better than the market today as well.  C got me.


----------



## pirate_girl

Kane said:


> Based upon my sources and Ron Paul, the Rapture cometh. (giggle)
> 
> Sell your equities NOW and stock up on noodles, forty-five and toilet paper.


----------



## Leni

Talked to my stock broker today.  He said that the market is reacting to what is going on over seas.  The American economy is doing well.


----------



## waybomb

Never trust a stock broker.
Jus sayin'


----------



## jpr62902

waybomb said:


> Never trust a stock broker.
> Jus sayin'



No kidding.  They're worse than lawyers.


----------



## Leni

I used the wrong term.  He is a financial adviser.  So far I've done very well.


----------



## jpr62902

Leni said:


> I used the wrong term.  He is a financial adviser.  So far I've done very well.



Good for you. 

Can I ask how they are paid?


----------



## waybomb

SKF played well for me again. It is only a paper position since I haven't sold anything, but, my portfolio was only down 0.04% at close.


----------



## jpr62902

waybomb said:


> SKF played well for me again. It is only a paper position since I haven't sold anything, but, my portfolio was only down 0.04% at close.



That's great.  SKF is trading at just over a third of what it was when I sold it.  With those proceeds, I bought MCD and MO, which are up about 50% even after the bloodbath over the last week.

There are many ways to hedge.


----------



## waybomb

You sold SKF at the right time then. Good for you!

JPR - if something really bad happens, you are sunk. Say, like another in-continent major terrorism attack. Or if a too big to fail does. If SKF works the way it has, you'll lose about half and I'll gain 5200% or more, if the market drops in the 50% range. The last few days have shown me I made the right decision. 

That's the value of a hedge - insurance. 

What skf has done for me the last few days is allowed me to sleep. My position essentially stayed flat through this bump. 

IF SKF went to 10 bucks, I would hurt a bit, but would not be ruined. In fact, I'd be ahead since obviously the market would be roaring for skf to go to 10 and my other investments would grow. So 217k gamble nets me some negative offset to the others but I am still close to even.

Likewise, if SKF went to 4000 bucks (as it did in 2009, twice), I would be way ahead then the losses experienced by the market turning so sour that SKF went to 4000. What's that 250k@76 worth? 13mm+.

Just my 2 cents. 

Play 'em as you see 'em.

I just do not believe the market is realistic. A real number is less than 15,000. Maybe way less; who knows how much crap has again penetrated the financial markets. I am banking on the downswing, and actually hedging that thought with my other investments.

And to be clear - make your own mind up about investments. I am not an adviser nor a pro, just a dumb luck jerk who has no right nor ability to recommend anything to anybody.


----------



## Kane

waybomb said:


> I just do not believe the market is realistic. A real number is less than 15,000. Maybe way less; who knows how much crap has again penetrated the financial markets.


When Ben Bernanke started monetizing our debt at the rate of $85B/month for six years (something he said he would never do) the equities markets are full of funny money. Trillions.

What are the banksters supposed to do when handed billions and billions of phony USD's at zero percent interest??  Duh.

BTW, when Clinton was prez, 55% of the wealth gains were going to the top 1%.  When Bush was prez, 65% went to the top. With Hussein as prez, 85% is going to the top.  WTF?  Free money. Gamble in the phony equities markets.  You'll get bailed out. Again.

BTW, China is no longer buying USA bonds.  So who keeps buying them?  Why, the USA of course.  What could possibly go wrong?


----------



## jpr62902

waybomb said:


> You sold SKF at the right time then. Good for you!
> 
> JPR - if something really bad happens, you are sunk. Say, like another in-continent major terrorism attack. Or if a too big to fail does. If SKF works the way it has, you'll lose about half and I'll gain 5200% or more, if the market drops in the 50% range. The last few days have shown me I made the right decision.
> 
> That's the value of a hedge - insurance.
> 
> What skf has done for me the last few days is allowed me to sleep. My position essentially stayed flat through this bump.
> 
> IF SKF went to 10 bucks, I would hurt a bit, but would not be ruined. In fact, I'd be ahead since obviously the market would be roaring for skf to go to 10 and my other investments would grow. So 217k gamble nets me some negative offset to the others but I am still close to even.
> 
> Likewise, if SKF went to 4000 bucks (as it did in 2009, twice), I would be way ahead then the losses experienced by the market turning so sour that SKF went to 4000. What's that 250k@76 worth? 13mm+.
> 
> Just my 2 cents.
> 
> Play 'em as you see 'em.
> 
> I just do not believe the market is realistic. A real number is less than 15,000. Maybe way less; who knows how much crap has again penetrated the financial markets. I am banking on the downswing, and actually hedging that thought with my other investments.
> 
> And to be clear - make your own mind up about investments. I am not an adviser nor a pro, just a dumb luck jerk who has no right nor ability to recommend anything to anybody.



I'm only sunk if I sell.  Each of my stocks survived the '09 crash and most continued to pay and increase their dividends through the same period.  I'm not saying your method is better or worse, just that there are many methods to help one sleep well at night.


----------



## 300 H and H

jpr62902 said:


> I'm only sunk if I sell.  Each of my stocks survived the '09 crash and most continued to pay and increase their dividends through the same period.  I'm not saying your method is better or worse, just that there are many methods to help one sleep well at night.



Very good point, no loss till you sell. What the SK does is to buy you time in the market place. You can stay longer before needing to sell. You can afford to stay in place till the markets go up once again.

If say you had college tuition for kids in the market say 4 years ago. It is now time and you need it..  Todays markets would not be what you want to sell on. If for instance you had SK, you could sell out at no loss, and possibly a gain. 

Shorting an index isn't for everyone, but it does have it's place.

Regards, Kirk


----------



## Kane

The DJAI is up 619 today, after a 1200 point swing on Monday. Yep. Sound fundamentals and analysis ... playing with other people's money.


----------



## waybomb

Once again, SKF came in strong to save the day for me.
Investments down only 0.46% today.


----------



## Melensdad

I'm up 10% so far.

But then again I'm not in the market.


----------



## jpr62902

300 H and H said:


> Very good point, no loss till you sell. What the SK does is to buy you time in the market place. You can stay longer before needing to sell. You can afford to stay in place till the markets go up once again.
> 
> If say you had college tuition for kids in the market say 4 years ago. It is now time and you need it.. Todays markets would not be what you want to sell on. If for instance you had SK, you could sell out at no loss, and possibly a gain.
> 
> Shorting an index isn't for everyone, but it does have it's place.
> 
> Regards, Kirk



 If I bought $10,000 of SKF 4 years ago, I'd only have about $1,700.00 left today - an 83% loss.  Conversely, if I bought $10,000.00 of a dividend etf like SDY back then, I'd have about $17,000.00 today, a 70% gain.


----------



## waybomb

But I didn't do that, did I? 

I bought on a regular basis. My average cost right now is about 85.40. Yup, I'm down, but also was only down an average of 0.x% of total investments each day of this last rout.

Today, I am only up 0.39%.

That's the game, to stay ahead.

Overall, since I started playing in this casino, I am 73.6% as of this second. A few weeks ago, I was up way more than that. 

Lot's of if's. If I'd have bought 10 shares of BRK-A in 1982, and bought 1 more share per year, how many gazzilions would I be worth?

All I gotta do is buy low and sell high, right?
No point in debating could-have/would-have.


----------



## jpr62902

waybomb said:


> But I didn't do that, did I?
> 
> I bought on a regular basis. My average cost right now is about 85.40. Yup, I'm down, but also was only down an average of 0.x% of total investments each day of this last rout.
> 
> Today, I am only up 0.39%.
> 
> That's the game, to stay ahead.
> 
> Overall, since I started playing in this casino, I am 73.6% as of this second. A few weeks ago, I was up way more than that.
> 
> Lot's of if's. If I'd have bought 10 shares of BRK-A in 1982, and bought 1 more share per year, how many gazzilions would I be worth?
> 
> All I gotta do is buy low and sell high, right?
> No point in debating could-have/would-have.


 
 I wasn't responding to you.  I was responding to Kirk, to show him that in the scenario he presented, SKF was not a particularly good hedge.


----------



## 300 H and H

jpr62902 said:


> If I bought $10,000 of SKF 4 years ago, I'd only have about $1,700.00 left today - an 83% loss.  Conversely, if I bought $10,000.00 of a dividend etf like SDY back then, I'd have about $17,000.00 today, a 70% gain.



Hard to argue that..

As of now I am no longer shorting the S&P. Your right it does have a high cost. But as Fred points out it is also a form of insurance, in case the house really does burn down..

But say $10,000 of SKF in 2008 A.D. before that big correction, protecting say $250,000 in pre crash value, would have paid off handsomely. For those of us who think that the market is in fact a Casino, with no real correlation to the economy it is just another bet on the table, to be put on and taken off as your "gut" tells you when the market is at all time highs. It never stays there long.....

You don't have to keep it around for long. Just for those times when you are getting real nervous about the market, short term. I should have bought some the week before the down term, or sold out my positions, as my guts were telling me loudly to do.. But on vacation it is hard to do so realistically, and not ruin a good time with family. I am young enough, with lots of other assets to help me in retirement, and with S.S. the retirement fund is more for "wants" than "needs" for me..


And I have the time for the market to turn around to..

Regards, Kirk


----------



## MrLiberty

My investing days are over, I'm living off the few investments I have until I can get SS, so in that vane I went out and bought hot dogs today.


----------



## jpr62902

300 H and H said:


> Hard to argue that..
> 
> As of now I am no longer shorting the S&P. Your right it does have a high cost. But as Fred points out it is also a form of insurance, in case the house really does burn down..
> 
> But say $10,000 of SKF in 2008 A.D. before that big correction, protecting say $250,000 in pre crash value, would have paid off handsomely. For those of us who think that the market is in fact a Casino, with no real correlation to the economy it is just another bet on the table, to be put on and taken off as your "gut" tells you when the market is at all time highs. It never stays there long.....
> 
> You don't have to keep it around for long. Just for those times when you are getting real nervous about the market, short term. I should have bought some the week before the down term, or sold out my positions, as my guts were telling me loudly to do.. But on vacation it is hard to do so realistically, and not ruin a good time with family. I am young enough, with lots of other assets to help me in retirement, and with S.S. the retirement fund is more for "wants" than "needs" for me..
> 
> 
> And I have the time for the market to turn around to..
> 
> Regards, Kirk



 I subscribe more to time in the market, versus timing the market.  Still, SKF did have its time.  Here's its chart since 2007:


----------



## waybomb

And when the market finally catches up with the real value of the dollar, I expect to be climbing the mountain.

Thanks for the reminder.C'mon 4000. ~3950 bucks per issue.
I'll buy the Huracan I've been lusting after.


----------



## jpr62902

waybomb said:


> And when the market finally catches up with the real value of the dollar, I expect to be climbing the mountain.
> 
> Thanks for the reminder.C'mon 4000. ~3950 bucks per issue.
> I'll buy the Huracan I've been lusting after.


 
 Good luck!


----------



## 300 H and H

waybomb said:


> And when the market finally catches up with the real value of the dollar, I expect to be climbing the mountain.
> 
> .



Fred I wonder if you are correct. We know about the dollar, but my bet is the other currancies and their "real value" is not any better, and may be worse than our Dollar is...

For the life of me I don't understand why the dollar is so highly valued, given what we know.. Unless the rest of the developed world's currency real value isn't worse than our own.. The high dollar is very much hurting our exports. Farmers know this well...

Regards, Kirk


----------



## Kane

300 H and H said:


> Fred I wonder if you are correct. We know about the dollar, but my bet is the other currancies and their "real value" is not any better, and may be worse than our Dollar is...
> 
> For the life of me I don't understand why the dollar is so highly valued, given what we know.. Unless the rest of the developed world's currency real value isn't worse than our own.. The high dollar is very much hurting our exports. Farmers know this well...
> 
> Regards, Kirk



If we only knew.  If we only knew who the dark wizards are behind the curtain controlling the reserve currencies, spot gold and the petro-dollar.  Dark wizards indeed, balancing on the edge of a razor blade, hoping to NOT fall off and snag their nuts.  Our nuts.  How long will it be before the jig is up?


----------

