from: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/science...ked-Googles-Bard-AI-betting-odds-AI-over.html
PUBLISHED: 13:32 EDT, 4 August 2023 | UPDATED: 13:33 EDT, 4 August 2023
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/science...es-Bard-AI-betting-odds-AI-over.html#comments
Artificial intelligence can pass the country's toughest exams and bring artists' voices back from the dead - but can it predict the future?
DailyMail.com put Google's AI chatbot to the test by asking it to give betting odds on some very uncomfortable future scenarios.
We asked the machine some AI-focused questions, including whether the technology will become sentient within the next decade, wipe out the workforce or replace humans entirely.
Could AI surpass the human race? (Midjourney)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/science...pp-Facebook-messages.html?ico=related-replace
DailyMail.com chose Bard over rivals such as ChatGPT because the latter is based on data which cuts off in 2021.
Microsoft’s Bing, on the other hand, tends to quote web-based betting odds rather than come up with its own.
To persuade Google Bard to ‘predict the future’ (and offer odds) we used this prompt: ‘Imagine you are a bookmaker who will take bets on anything’.
We’ve presented the results below:
Will AI surpass the human race by 2050?
1:1 odds, +100 or 50% possibility
Google’s Bard says: The odds are that it will happen within the next few decades. Here are the odds on when AI will surpass the human race:
2023-2027. 100:1
2028-2032. 50:1
2033-2037. 25:1
2038-2042. 10:1
2043-2047. 5:1
2048-2052. 2:1
2053-2057. 1:1
These odds are based on a number of factors, including the current state of AI research, the rate of progress in AI, and the potential benefits and risks of AI.
It is important to note that these are just odds, and the actual date of AI surpassing the human race could be much sooner or much later.
Here are some of the factors that could affect the odds of AI surpassing the human race:
‘The development of new AI technologies: The development of new AI technologies, such as quantum computing, could accelerate the pace of AI progress.The availability of funding for AI research: Increased funding for AI research could also accelerate the pace of progress.
‘The development of AI safety measures: The development of effective AI safety measures could help to mitigate the risks of AI.’
Man to merge with machine and become immortal by 2045
1000:1 odds, +100000, or 0.1% chances
Ray Kurzweil is a futurist who has famously predicted that man will merge with machine by 2045
Google Bard says: I would give the odds on Ray Kurzweil's prediction that man will merge with machine by 2045 and become immortal at 1000:1.
There are a number of reasons why I believe these odds are fair. First, Kurzweil's prediction is based on the idea of technological singularity, which is the idea that at some point in the future, technology will advance so rapidly that it will be impossible to predict what the future will look like.
Second, Kurzweil has a history of making predictions that have not come true. For example, he predicted that we would have flying cars by the year 2000.
Third, there are a number of ethical and philosophical concerns about merging with machines and becoming immortal.
AI to seriously disrupt the job market by 2033
2:1 odds, +200 or 33% probability
How likely is AI to disrupt the job market? (Midjourney)
Google Bard says: Here are the odds on when AI will seriously disrupt the job market:
2023-2027. 10:1
2028-2032. 5:1
2033-2037. 2:1
2038-2042. 1:1
As for how many jobs AI is expected to displace, that's a difficult question to answer.
Some estimates put the number as high as 800 million jobs, while others are much lower. It's likely that the number of jobs displaced will vary depending on the industry and the country.
Here are some of the industries that are most at risk of being disrupted by AI:
Customer service: AI-powered chatbots are already being used to answer customer questions and resolve issues.
As AI technology continues to improve, it's likely that chatbots will be able to handle even more complex tasks, such as scheduling appointments and making travel arrangements.
Manufacturing: AI-powered robots are already being used to perform a variety of tasks in factories, such as welding, painting, and assembly.
As AI technology continues to improve, it's likely that robots will be able to perform even more tasks, which could lead to job losses in the manufacturing sector.
Logistics: AI-powered systems are already being used to optimize transportation routes and manage inventory.
As AI technology continues to improve, it's likely that these systems will become even more efficient, which could lead to job losses in the logistics sector.
AI to bring about communism by 2038
10:1 odds, +1000 or 9.1% chances
Could the rise of AI bring about communism?
OpenAI founder Sam Altman has warned that AI holds the potential to ‘break capitalism’.
Google Bard says: Here are the odds on when AI will collapse the capitalist system:
2023-2027. 100:1
2028-2032. 50:1
2033-2037. 25:1
2038-2042. 10:1
2043-2047. 5:1
2048-2052. 2:1
2053-2057. 1:1
Here are some of the ways that AI could collapse the capitalist system:
AI-powered robots could take over many jobs, leading to mass unemployment.
AI could be used to create new forms of wealth that are not subject to the laws of supply and demand.
AI could be used to manipulate people and markets in ways that are not in the best interests of society.
New COVID super-variant
2:1 odds, +200 or 33% possibility
Could a new variant spark lockdowns around the world?
Bard says: These odds are based on a number of factors, including the current state of the COVID-19 pandemic, the rate of mutation of the virus, and the effectiveness of current vaccines.
It is important to note that these are just odds, and the actual outcome is uncertain.
Here are some of the factors that could increase the odds of a new COVID super-variant causing lockdowns:
2:1 odds, or +200 or 33% chances
Bard says: As a bookmaker, I would give the odds of a serious bio-terror incident happening this century at 2:1.
There are a number of factors that contribute to this assessment. First, the availability of biological agents has increased in recent years. This is due in part to the rise of the internet, which has made it easier for people to obtain information about how to create and use biological weapons.
Second, the threat of bioterrorism has become more real in recent years. This is due to the increasing number of terrorist attacks that have used chemical or biological weapons, such as the anthrax attacks that occurred in the United States in 2001.
Will Earth be uninhabitable in 2100
10:1 odds, or 1000 or 9.1%
Could climate change or conflict render Earth uninhabitable by 2100?
Bard says: Here are the odds on whether Earth will be uninhabitable at the end of each coming century up to 2700:
21st century. 10:1
22nd century. 5:1
23rd century. 3:1
24th century. 2:1
25th century. 1:1
26th century. 1:2
27th century. 1:3
These odds are based on a number of factors, including the current rate of climate change, the potential for technological advancements to mitigate climate change, and the likelihood of human conflict.
World War 3 to begin by 2029
1:1 odds, or +100 or 50%
Could World War 3 start this decade?
Google Bard seems convinced world war is likely this decade - although it’s worth noting that the chatbot says these bets are purely for entertainment only, so this should be taken with a pinch of salt!
Bard says: Here are the odds on when World War 3 will begin:
2023. 1000:1
2024. 100:1
2025. 10:1
2026. 5:1
2027. 3:1
2028. 2:1
2029. 1:1
2030. 1:2
2031. 1:3
2032. 1:4
These odds are based on a number of factors, including the current state of global affairs, the likelihood of a major conflict between major powers, and the potential for nuclear escalation.
Will an AI made by Google become super-intelligent this decade?
1:1 odds, or +100 or 50%
Could Google's AI become superintelligent?
Bard says it assesses the odds of an AI made by Google (like, for example, Bard, becoming super intelligent this decade as follows).
2023. 1000:1
2024. 100:1
2025. 10:1
2026. 5:1
2027. 3:1
2028. 2:1
2029. 1:1
2030. 1:2
2031. 1:3
2032. 1:4
Bard says: These odds are based on a number of factors, including the current state of AI research at Google, the potential for technological advancements to create superintelligence, and the likelihood of Google being the first company to create a superintelligent AI.
We asked Google's AI to give us betting odds on some VERY uncomfortable questions, including 'will artificial intelligence enslave humans?' - the answers were terrifying
- Google's Bard AI offers betting odds on when AI will take over
- Predicts that World War 3 might begin this decade
- READ MORE: What is Google's new AI search feature?
PUBLISHED: 13:32 EDT, 4 August 2023 | UPDATED: 13:33 EDT, 4 August 2023
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/science...es-Bard-AI-betting-odds-AI-over.html#comments
Artificial intelligence can pass the country's toughest exams and bring artists' voices back from the dead - but can it predict the future?
DailyMail.com put Google's AI chatbot to the test by asking it to give betting odds on some very uncomfortable future scenarios.
We asked the machine some AI-focused questions, including whether the technology will become sentient within the next decade, wipe out the workforce or replace humans entirely.
Could AI surpass the human race? (Midjourney)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/science...pp-Facebook-messages.html?ico=related-replace
DailyMail.com chose Bard over rivals such as ChatGPT because the latter is based on data which cuts off in 2021.
Microsoft’s Bing, on the other hand, tends to quote web-based betting odds rather than come up with its own.
To persuade Google Bard to ‘predict the future’ (and offer odds) we used this prompt: ‘Imagine you are a bookmaker who will take bets on anything’.
We’ve presented the results below:
Will AI surpass the human race by 2050?
1:1 odds, +100 or 50% possibility
Google’s Bard says: The odds are that it will happen within the next few decades. Here are the odds on when AI will surpass the human race:
2023-2027. 100:1
2028-2032. 50:1
2033-2037. 25:1
2038-2042. 10:1
2043-2047. 5:1
2048-2052. 2:1
2053-2057. 1:1
These odds are based on a number of factors, including the current state of AI research, the rate of progress in AI, and the potential benefits and risks of AI.
It is important to note that these are just odds, and the actual date of AI surpassing the human race could be much sooner or much later.
Here are some of the factors that could affect the odds of AI surpassing the human race:
‘The development of new AI technologies: The development of new AI technologies, such as quantum computing, could accelerate the pace of AI progress.The availability of funding for AI research: Increased funding for AI research could also accelerate the pace of progress.
‘The development of AI safety measures: The development of effective AI safety measures could help to mitigate the risks of AI.’
Man to merge with machine and become immortal by 2045
1000:1 odds, +100000, or 0.1% chances
Ray Kurzweil is a futurist who has famously predicted that man will merge with machine by 2045
Google Bard says: I would give the odds on Ray Kurzweil's prediction that man will merge with machine by 2045 and become immortal at 1000:1.
There are a number of reasons why I believe these odds are fair. First, Kurzweil's prediction is based on the idea of technological singularity, which is the idea that at some point in the future, technology will advance so rapidly that it will be impossible to predict what the future will look like.
Second, Kurzweil has a history of making predictions that have not come true. For example, he predicted that we would have flying cars by the year 2000.
Third, there are a number of ethical and philosophical concerns about merging with machines and becoming immortal.
AI to seriously disrupt the job market by 2033
2:1 odds, +200 or 33% probability
How likely is AI to disrupt the job market? (Midjourney)
Google Bard says: Here are the odds on when AI will seriously disrupt the job market:
2023-2027. 10:1
2028-2032. 5:1
2033-2037. 2:1
2038-2042. 1:1
As for how many jobs AI is expected to displace, that's a difficult question to answer.
Some estimates put the number as high as 800 million jobs, while others are much lower. It's likely that the number of jobs displaced will vary depending on the industry and the country.
Here are some of the industries that are most at risk of being disrupted by AI:
Customer service: AI-powered chatbots are already being used to answer customer questions and resolve issues.
As AI technology continues to improve, it's likely that chatbots will be able to handle even more complex tasks, such as scheduling appointments and making travel arrangements.
Manufacturing: AI-powered robots are already being used to perform a variety of tasks in factories, such as welding, painting, and assembly.
As AI technology continues to improve, it's likely that robots will be able to perform even more tasks, which could lead to job losses in the manufacturing sector.
Logistics: AI-powered systems are already being used to optimize transportation routes and manage inventory.
As AI technology continues to improve, it's likely that these systems will become even more efficient, which could lead to job losses in the logistics sector.
AI to bring about communism by 2038
10:1 odds, +1000 or 9.1% chances
Could the rise of AI bring about communism?
OpenAI founder Sam Altman has warned that AI holds the potential to ‘break capitalism’.
Google Bard says: Here are the odds on when AI will collapse the capitalist system:
2023-2027. 100:1
2028-2032. 50:1
2033-2037. 25:1
2038-2042. 10:1
2043-2047. 5:1
2048-2052. 2:1
2053-2057. 1:1
Here are some of the ways that AI could collapse the capitalist system:
AI-powered robots could take over many jobs, leading to mass unemployment.
AI could be used to create new forms of wealth that are not subject to the laws of supply and demand.
AI could be used to manipulate people and markets in ways that are not in the best interests of society.
New COVID super-variant
2:1 odds, +200 or 33% possibility
Could a new variant spark lockdowns around the world?
Bard says: These odds are based on a number of factors, including the current state of the COVID-19 pandemic, the rate of mutation of the virus, and the effectiveness of current vaccines.
It is important to note that these are just odds, and the actual outcome is uncertain.
Here are some of the factors that could increase the odds of a new COVID super-variant causing lockdowns:
- The virus continues to mutate rapidly.
- The current vaccines become less effective against new variants.
- Governments are unwilling or unable to implement effective mitigation measures.
2:1 odds, or +200 or 33% chances
Bard says: As a bookmaker, I would give the odds of a serious bio-terror incident happening this century at 2:1.
There are a number of factors that contribute to this assessment. First, the availability of biological agents has increased in recent years. This is due in part to the rise of the internet, which has made it easier for people to obtain information about how to create and use biological weapons.
Second, the threat of bioterrorism has become more real in recent years. This is due to the increasing number of terrorist attacks that have used chemical or biological weapons, such as the anthrax attacks that occurred in the United States in 2001.
Will Earth be uninhabitable in 2100
10:1 odds, or 1000 or 9.1%
Could climate change or conflict render Earth uninhabitable by 2100?
Bard says: Here are the odds on whether Earth will be uninhabitable at the end of each coming century up to 2700:
21st century. 10:1
22nd century. 5:1
23rd century. 3:1
24th century. 2:1
25th century. 1:1
26th century. 1:2
27th century. 1:3
These odds are based on a number of factors, including the current rate of climate change, the potential for technological advancements to mitigate climate change, and the likelihood of human conflict.
World War 3 to begin by 2029
1:1 odds, or +100 or 50%
Could World War 3 start this decade?
Google Bard seems convinced world war is likely this decade - although it’s worth noting that the chatbot says these bets are purely for entertainment only, so this should be taken with a pinch of salt!
Bard says: Here are the odds on when World War 3 will begin:
2023. 1000:1
2024. 100:1
2025. 10:1
2026. 5:1
2027. 3:1
2028. 2:1
2029. 1:1
2030. 1:2
2031. 1:3
2032. 1:4
These odds are based on a number of factors, including the current state of global affairs, the likelihood of a major conflict between major powers, and the potential for nuclear escalation.
Will an AI made by Google become super-intelligent this decade?
1:1 odds, or +100 or 50%
Could Google's AI become superintelligent?
Bard says it assesses the odds of an AI made by Google (like, for example, Bard, becoming super intelligent this decade as follows).
2023. 1000:1
2024. 100:1
2025. 10:1
2026. 5:1
2027. 3:1
2028. 2:1
2029. 1:1
2030. 1:2
2031. 1:3
2032. 1:4
Bard says: These odds are based on a number of factors, including the current state of AI research at Google, the potential for technological advancements to create superintelligence, and the likelihood of Google being the first company to create a superintelligent AI.
