"The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy"

[California]

"The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy" - Sir John Templeton.

Are we there yet? I think give it a little more time.


Templeton was one of the giants, someone who not only understood investing but also what to do with his money. Civilization evolves through the effort of people like this in each generation.

Sir John Templeton's philosophy on business and life in general.

 

[fogtender]

"The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy" - Sir John Templeton.

Are we there yet? I think give it a little more time.


Templeton was one of the giants, someone who not only understood investing but also what to do with his money. Civilization evolves through the effort of people like this in each generation.

Sir John Templeton's philosophy on business and life in general.

You are right to wait!

If you think it is bad now, wait and see if Obama were to win, it will get really bad.... The guy chants "Change" and has no plan but talk and waving arms... that we know of except for:

A. We run out of Iraq, and in time the terrorism will follow us home once the pressure is off of them.

B. Wants to tax the "Rich", he clearly has no clue to whom pays the taxes since they will just raise their rates on whatever it is that made them rich because the average "Joe" bought it, and the average Joe will pay the tax.

C. Penalizing the Oil Companies will just raise the price of gas to match whatever the goofy tax he hits them with, guess who buys the gas...

The Democrats have brought you high gas prices because they have stopped almost all drilling and other forms of "Good" energy advancement... except for converting food to fuel, that is their shining achivement... now look at the price of the foods that are short....

Nope, It can really get worse for real, not this pretend stuff the Dem's have drummed up for the Election process.

I just refinanced the house at a lower rate, didn't seem to have any issues when the rest of the Democrats are screaming "The sky is falling", there is still money around for those that pay their bills. I could care less if a guy that has a $800,000.00 house is in Foreclosure, it is the guys that have the $100,000.00 house that I care about, they are the ones that do the work and get things done and they don't seem to be losing homes, if they were, I would be concerned...

The "upper" guys have clean fingernails and can choose to move anywhere else they want and start over.

 

[Cityboy]

DamnifIknow! Geeze...I've been buying all along, but I've rebalanced some profits into treasuries and bond funds along the way. It looks to me like we are getting a repeat of the 1987 crash when both stocks and real estate corrected, but with the oil inflation twist. Oil prices seem to be the wild card here that could keep all the markets (except the oil market) moving downward.

I probably should have been a little more conservative, but I'm not sure how.....I stopped buying for a while during the peaks but got back in after the dot.com bust. I'm invested pretty broad in index funds - international, S&P, small cap, & bond indexs etc.......

What's your plan Cali?

 

[California]

Foggy, it is glaringly obvious you didn't read the article I referenced.

Why don't you go start your own thread. Tell us how you really feel.

 

[fogtender]

Foggy, it is glaringly obvious you didn't read the article I referenced.

Why don't you go start your own thread. Tell us how you really feel.

Your question was "Are we there yet?", and then you stated "I think give it a little more time."

I answered "no" to the question, and "aggreed" to your statement. What part of a conversation don't you grasp?

Templeton saw when the time to buy was when the Masses were selling, they aren't selling yet.

 

[California]

Geeze...I've been buying all along, but I've rebalanced some profits into treasuries and bond funds along the way. ...

I probably should have been a little more conservative, but I'm not sure how. ...

I'm invested pretty broad in index funds - international, S&P, small cap, & bond indexes etc.......

Sounds like you are on the right track. How soon it pays off depends on the economy several years out, but sooner or later your efforts will be rewarded.

Me? Watch and wait, then finally start buying again. Probably about the same things you are buying.

The market may well go lower, maybe another 20 percent or more. But that difference in cost now will be irrelevant 10-20 years from now. At some point the risk of staying out is greater than the short term risk of watching prices fall below your cost.

But I'm not smart enough to pick stocks now. In the 80's and 90's, following trends made me good money. I don't have that intuition about this market.

I think I'll stick to long term investment in broad indexes, which as I've noted before, historically provided results better than 85% of all investors. I can't think of another strategy I have any faith in.

 

[California]

Foggy, the subtlety of using that quote and comment as a 'hook' to get people to go read Templeton's philosophy goes right over the heads of people who wouldn't know what he is talking about. Nothing personal, of course.

Now did you have something to say about Templeton and his investment philosophy?

This really isn't a thread about how you fear Obama.

 

[fogtender]

Foggy, the subtlety of using that quote and comment as a 'hook' to get people to go read Templeton's philosophy goes right over the heads of people who wouldn't know what he is talking about. Nothing personal, of course.

Now did you have something to say about Templeton and his investment philosophy?

This really isn't a thread about how you fear Obama.

I respect Templeton's visions of investing, some of the religious sides I don't agree with, but overall he is very sharp.

As for my inclusion on Obama, it was in regards to your question of if things were going to get worse and it was my reasons of why I felt it was, the elections are a few months off.

Just saying "YES" or "No" doesn't convey any intelligence on a subject. Kinda like whining at the boss about a project you don't like, and then not having any ideas to make it better... I at least try to offer an "up" side to something that I may consider a "bad" issue. Voting for Obama, isn't long term good choice, voting for McCain isn't the best choice either, but it is the best one we have to choose from. Either way, one or the other is going to effect your investments, really well or really badly.

Your question of "Maximum Pessimism" is what my answer was based on, if you don't want honest answers to your questions, then don't ask them.

 

[Bulldog1401]

Oh, and Cali, your shit does too stink.....

 

[California]

Huh?

You don't like Templeton, or you want the thread to be about Obama, or what???

 

[fogtender]

Huh?

You don't like Templeton, or you want the thread to be about Obama, or what???

Your basic question was based on Templeton's "Maximum Pessimism" to buy. It hasn't got there yet, the elections for the wrong guy will put us there. You clearly are an Obama fan, that has nothing to do with your question, but his actions will be part of your answer.

I am sorry you can't grasp the big picture. When the taxes are run up even farther than they are now, the markets tend to drop. Obama will be that choice with a Democratic controlled Congress, they will tax and kill the economy more so than high gas prices have slowed it.

BUT, as for Obama personally, I think he is a fraud. About a year in the Senate, no experience, never had a job where he produced something or managed, and wants to have total power. The clown wouldn't even visit the wounded on the "World Press Tour", just wanted photos with the Generals, not some wounded soldier on a bed. That is not "Commander in Chief" material. If he was sincere, he could have gone alone in private to visit the wounded.

 

[daedong]

Sorry for hijacking your thread Chris.

Foggy your current President has your country aimed at the greatest crisis you have seen since the great depression. And you have the audacity to slag a possible incoming president. Slag the one the has led your country into the mess it is in. Have a nice day.

 

[fogtender]

Sorry for hijacking your thread Chris.

Foggy your current President has your country aimed at the greatest crisis you have seen since the great depression. And you have the audacity to slag a possible incoming president. Slag the one the has led your country into the mess it is in. Have a nice day.

We were attacked on 9/11 by a religious group that has no boarders and that put us at war. Bush may be a below average president had it not been for the fact that he did lower taxes and go after those unrelentingly that attacked us. He was quite clear in a speech, "You are either with or against us", something that the left can't grasp, sorry to pop your bubble.

But the upcoming Presidential Election will either make or break our economy and the best time to buy is still not here (but if you pick and chose, there is always a market on a smaller scale). If Obama gets elected, the overall market may tank worse than you can imagine with the forecast of new taxes on top of a soft housing market and high gas prices from doing nothing from our Democratic controlled Congress that has half the approval rating of the President, somewhere between 11 to 12 percent....

 

[Cityboy]

But the upcoming Presidential Election will either make or break our economy and the best time to buy is still not here (but if you pick and chose, there is always a market on a smaller scale). If Obama gets elected, the overall market may tank worse than you can imagine with the forecast of new taxes on top of a soft housing market and high gas prices from doing nothing from our Democratic controlled Congress that has half the approval rating of the President, somewhere between 11 to 12 percent....

The right said that about Slick Willy Clinton. If he gets elected the economy will tank......If he gets reelected the economy will tank........As we all know, that did not happen, and it won't happen if Obama gets elected. And Obama will be your next president barring a personal catastrophy on his part. So you might as well get used to the idea. The odds are that the economy will turn around regardless of who the president is. Somewhere midway through the next presidential term, we'll likey enter into another bull market and Obama will get the credit if he happens to be president. This is just another election cycle and economic cycle repeating itself.

Foggy, do you ever consider that you sound exactly the same as the people on the left defending their candidates?

 

[fogtender]

Foggy, do you ever consider that you sound exactly the same as the people on the left defending their candidates?

No not really, I go more by facts than the sky is falling.

I never made any claim about Clinton on the Stock Market and we weren't in a war where someone attacked us. The reason Clinton did well with the economy is that the interest rates had been dropped and he got in when the getting was good. He balanced the books by cutting the military and Intel to where we couldn't see past the driveway... which of course brought us 9/11 which was planned during his Presidency, as were Attacks on the U.S.S. Cole, a couple of U.S. Embassy's and some other little oddities. But by comparison, Bush has kept us pretty safe at home after the first attack.

Nope, I pretty much look at what the Candidate says and does, and currently I don't see any bright lights from Obama on the future of the war or economy, just because he chants "Change" doesn't mean it will be a good one.

You tax the rich, you know that bunch of guys that pay you for working and expect to get more raises? Nothing will get cheaper, because they pass the taxes on to the consumer, you know...you...

As soon as we run off as Obama wants, the Islamic terrorist will regroup with no pressure and start pulling off 9/11 attacks here as payback for going after them after 9/11 and the other little attacks before then... They openly declared war on us years ago before 9/11, just nobody got the message until the twin towers fell... And it seems that those that haven't got it are living in a fantasy world of Mr. Rogers and his Neighborhood.

The left clearly doesn't look at history, they scream things like "Bush Lied" when in fact he had the same info as all the Democrats had... They did however lie when they said he lied to them. Remember it was a Democratic President that hired Mr. George Tenant, the CIA director that Bush should have fired but didn't.

As far as Obama winning, I really doubt it, when people get into a booth and close the curtain, they aren't going to be really having to claim to "love" Obama when they start searching their soul... Our little poll here pretty much proved that out... Which makes me feel pretty good about America!

I will say he may lose as bad as Carter did, or pretty close.

At that point the stock market will take off and go up, but I would buy just before that point, if by some stretch that Obama won, I would sell and buy it back at a lower level.

 

[Bulldog1401]

And Obama will be your next president barring a personal catastrophy on his part.

Obama is a personal catastrophy in the making. His complete unwillingness to grasp this country and call it his own (with the exception of when it benefits him) proves that.

 

[Cityboy]

No not really, I go more by facts than the sky is falling.

Well, actually, you are saying the sky is falling, but for different reasons. So, the left says the sky is falling, and the right says the sky is falling if Obama gets elected. I reckon the sky must really be falling, huh?

But by comparison, Bush has kept us pretty safe at home after the first attack.

I reckon by that comparison pretty much every other president has kept us about as safe as a president can keep us. Powerful point, Froggy.

You tax the rich, you know that bunch of guys that pay you for working and expect to get more raises? Nothing will get cheaper, because they pass the taxes on to the consumer, you know...you...

You you you...you who??? WTF are you talking about? How did you get this far out into left field? C'mon back into the ball park.

As soon as we run off as Obama wants, the Islamic terrorist will regroup with no pressure and start pulling off 9/11 attacks here as payback for going after them after 9/11 and the other little attacks before then... They openly declared war on us years ago before 9/11, just nobody got the message until the twin towers fell... And it seems that those that haven't got it are living in a fantasy world of Mr. Rogers and his Neighborhood.

I assume you are talking about our invasion of Iraq. Tell me again why it was a good idea to take a secular government, kill its secular leader, and turn it from a secular dictatorship into yet another Islamic theocracy of competing Islamic factions that will dissect into turmoil as soon as we leave? And, while you are justifying that, tell us again of all those Islamic democracy's we are going to base our success in Iraq upon? Yes, that illusive Islamic Democracy....the ultimate oxymoron.

The left clearly doesn't look at history, they scream things like "Bush Lied" when in fact he had the same info as all the Democrats had... They did however lie when they said he lied to them. Remember it was a Democratic President that hired Mr. George Tenant, the CIA director that Bush should have fired but didn't.

And the right screams just as shrilly as the left. Should Bush have fired Tenant because Tenant did not parrot what Bush wanted him to parrot? What kind of statement does it make about Bush for you to imply Bush was not competent enough to fire Tenant? It seems to me that neither the left nor the right looks at history, but they both sure like to blame each other for each others failures.

As far as Obama winning, I really doubt it, when people get into a booth and close the curtain, they aren't going to be really having to claim to "love" Obama when they start searching their soul... Our little poll here pretty much proved that out... Which makes me feel pretty good about America!

Our little poll here? Remember, we are pretty much a small group of primarily Republicans here at FF essentially. We are by no means representative of American demographics, so "our little poll" was basically a fantasy. As for me, I'm a conservative leaning Libertarian and I have no problem seeing and acknowledging that both die hard Republicans and die hard Democrats are wearing blinders that prevent them both from acknowledging the truth. Try taking your Republican blinders off Foggy, and my left wing friends need to take their blinders off too.

I will say he may lose as bad as Carter did, or pretty close.

That's some mighty big talk. We'll have to book-mark that comment and see if it holds true. My gut says that ain't gonna happen.

At that point the stock market will take off and go up, but I would buy just before that point, if by some stretch that Obama won, I would sell and buy it back at a lower level.

The president has nothing to do with the stock market. If what you say is true, then we should be in a boom now, and should have completely tanked under Clinton. This is the same silliness that left spouts, so it makes no more sense coming from the right than it did coming from the left.

 

[fogtender]

That's some mighty big talk. We'll have to book-mark that comment and see if it holds true. My gut says that ain't gonna happen.

And what if I am right?

The Press is in love with Obama, not the overall American Public. Carter was suppost to be in a dead heat with Reagan too, it wasn't even close. The privacy of the voting booth will tell.

Not all presidents protect the U.S. as well as others. Some have even discraced us from both parties, just history has the Democrats ahead in that race.

As for the President controling the stock market, he doesn't, but what he does do is things that effect it along with congress like taxes, and other related issues. With a Democratic controled congress and president, it isn't that rosey.

We are at war, how we got there at this point really doesn't matter now how you view it, how we get out is going to be the issue and running off in a set time frame when the guys trying to kill you don't have the same agenda. That is the same thing as if we ran off after losing a few battles in WWII, in war you either win or you lose, wars don't end in draws very often.