tommu56
Bronze Member
FINDINGS
As of June 2023, FAIR estimates that approximately 16.8 million illegal aliens reside in the United States. This is significantly higher than our January 2022 illegal alien population estimate of 15.5 million.[1] This estimate is also a 2.3 million increase from our end-of-2020 estimate, meaning the illegal alien population increased 16 percent nationwide during just the first two years of Joe Biden’s presidency.
FAIR’s most recent comprehensive fiscal cost study showed that illegal aliens and their U.S.-born children impose a net annual cost of $150.6 billion on American taxpayers as of the beginning of 2023. According to the previous (2017) cost study, the annual net cost of illegal migration was approximately $116 billion.[2] This means that in the short span of 5 years, the annual cost to American taxpayers has increased by nearly $35 billion. When further adjusted for the increased illegal alien population growth demonstrated by this report, taxpayers are being set up for annual spending to the tune of $163 billion and counting. This burden will only continue to grow as a result of the Biden administration’s open-borders policies.
WHO IS AN ILLEGAL ALIEN?
An illegal alien is simply any alien who is present in the United States without legal status, like a valid visa or lawful permanent residence.It is important to note that “legal status” is not the same as “lawful presence.” For example, recipients of deferred action, deferred enforced departure, Temporary Protected Status (TPS), or parole do not have legal status. These programs (some of which are authorized by statute, some are not) do not give illegal aliens visas or green cards. They merely defer deportation for a period of time.
Nevertheless, these aliens are still described as “lawfully present” or as having “lawful presence.” That is because “lawful presence” is a term of art under immigration law designed to clarify that although an alien has no legal status, he or she is not accruing unlawful presence under Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) Section 212(a)(9) for purposes of the three and ten-year bars.[3]
Under INA Section 212(a)(9), an alien who has no legal status will start to accrue days of unlawful presence. If the alien accrues more than 180 of unlawful presence and is then deported or otherwise leaves, the alien is barred from admission for three years. If the alien accrues 365 or more days (one year) of unlawful presence and is then deported or otherwise leaves, s/he is barred from admission for ten years.[4]
However, if an alien is granted a deferral of deportation, such as deferred action, the deferral would not be meaningful if, by staying, the alien could be barred from re-entry for three to ten years. To avoid this outcome, the former Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS), now United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), essentially deemed that aliens with such deferrals are “lawfully present” so that they do not accrue days of unlawful presence and are not subject to the statutory bars.[5]
For this study’s purposes, we use the definition that conforms to U.S. immigration law and consider individuals present in the U.S. without legal status to be illegal aliens, regardless of any deferments applicable to their removal or accrual of unlawful presence. Counting individuals in these situations as “legal immigrants” or “lawful residents” would be both incorrect and a biased mischaracterization of immigration law.
FAIR offers additional details on who should be considered an illegal alien in our study titled “Why ‘Illegal Alien’ is the Correct Term.”[6]
CHALLENGES ESTIMATING THE ILLEGAL ALIEN POPULATION
Estimating the size, distribution, and characteristics of the illegal alien population is an inexact science. The methods used by those claiming to have calculated a definitive figure should be viewed skeptically, as there is no completely reliable source of information on illegal aliens. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) only (loosely) counts foreign nationals who enter and leave the United States in a lawful manner, and its illegal alien population estimates remain unhelpful due to underestimating the size of the population and utilizing outdated numbers.[7] In truth, we do not know exactly how many people cross the border illegally and evade immigration authorities, nor can anyone accurately quantify overstays or gotaways. We can only estimate these figures based on changes in annual census data, along with how many individuals CBP and ICE believe slip through undetected.Most of the current estimates regarding the total number of illegal aliens are based on U.S. Census Bureau data. Unfortunately, far too many of these tallies presume that essentially all unlawful migrants are willing to respond to demographic questionnaires and that they provide accurate information to federal officials. As people whose very presence in the United States is the result of a violation of law, many illegal aliens understandably see no personal benefit in revealing any information about their nativity or true immigration status. Therefore, when asked about how, when, and why they entered the United States, illegal aliens have a strong motive to either lie, claiming they are lawful immigrants or citizens, or refuse to respond at all. There are no repercussions for illegal aliens who fail to respond to annual Census Bureau survey programs such as the American Community Survey (ACS) or the Current Population Survey (CPS).
Indeed, there are few mechanisms in place to verify the accuracy of the information respondents provide. In fact, the Census Bureau’s weighted results from the ACS can vary by millions, depending on what information is requested and how questions are phrased.[8] As a result, we should avoid relying solely on raw totals from the Census Bureau.
HOW WE REACHED OUR ESTIMATE
To determine FAIR’s estimate of the total number of illegal aliens in the United States, we first calculated an approximate total number of all foreign-born residents currently presumed to be living here. To do this, we first analyzed the latest relevant information available from the Census Bureau’s September 2021 ACS and the April 2023 CPS.[9]It bears repeating that the ACS and CPS do not capture the entire illegal alien population in the United States. In the past, most reputable research organizations routinely acknowledged large-scale, widespread and systematic undercounting in surveys of the illegal alien population. Understandably, many illegal aliens are reluctant to engage with government surveys and many do not even live in residential addresses within the survey pool. Because of this simple fact, older estimates frequently attempted to account for the much lower response rate of illegal aliens.
However, as the number of illegal aliens continues to increase, many of these organizations stand to benefit from a false perception that illegal immigration is not the severe and ongoing issue that it is. For policy reasons, they now downplay or even entirely fail to account for undercounts and low response rates, creating a false impression that the illegal alien population in the United States is significantly smaller than in reality. The idea that the population of illegal aliens has not increased to a substantial degree in a decade, especially given the collapse of immigration enforcement under the Biden administration, is unrealistic.
After we ascertained a base estimate of illegal aliens, as captured by the ACS and CPS, by comparing the total number of foreign-born individuals with the aggregated population of naturalized citizens, permanent residents, and valid visa holders, we applied a conservative estimate that the illegal alien population is being undercounted by approximately 30 percent, consistent with past estimates of nonresponse rates for illegal aliens. We also took into account the makeup of recent increases in the measured foreign-born population, which contain a higher proportion of illegal immigrants than previous years due to inadequate border security and the expansion of dubious immigration parole programs. Our estimate is comparable to the general consensus of non-partisan experts regarding the accuracy of Census data.[10] Using this method, we reached our estimate of 16.8 million illegal aliens residing in the U.S.
WHAT’S DRIVING THE NUMBERS?
This alarming and rapid increase in the illegal alien population can be attributed to several factors:I. During the post-COVID recovery, U.S. employers and businesses began to re-open, re-hire old workers, and hire new workers. In addition, border and flight restrictions were relaxed globally, making access to the United States and its borders easier.
The post-COVID economic recovery was attractive to illegal aliens, who are primarily economic migrants. Even if the U.S. economy shows signs of strain, it is in many respects still healthier than other countries and today remains a powerful magnet for foreign nationals who want to work in the U.S. and often remit their wages home. This improving economic situation, combined with easing travel restrictions in the hemisphere and indeed the world, made it easier to make the journey to cross the Southern border illegally. Easing travel restrictions and diplomatic post closures also made U.S. visas easier to obtain, resuming the steady influx of visa overstayers (who become illegal aliens when the terms of their visas are violated) into the illegal alien population.
How Many Illegal Aliens Are in the United States? 2023 Update | FAIRUS.org
As of June 2023, FAIR estimates that approximately 16.8 million illegal aliens reside in the United States. This is significantly higher than our January 2022 illegal alien population estimate of 15.5 million. This estimate is also a 2.3 million increase from our end-of-2020 estimate, meaning...