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Recession

Are we in the middle of recession?

  • NO

    Votes: 5 10.4%

  • Just a slow down in the economy

    Votes: 8 16.7%

  • Not sure

    Votes: 4 8.3%

  • Real close to recession

    Votes: 18 37.5%

  • Yes

    Votes: 13 27.1%
  • Total voters
    48
REDDOGTWO

REDDOGTWO

Unemployed Veg. Peddler
The fed just dropped the rate by three quarters on one per cent. This puts the rate at 3.5%, there is also talk of the fed dropping the rate by another one half of one per cent when they meet this month. This would bring the prime rate down to 6%.

This is meant to loosen up the credit markets as people and businesses are finding it hard to obtain financing.

Are we in the middle of recession?
 
Our local economy here is strong. However I own a shop building that has three shops and four offices.

Just kicked one guy out, if the real estate agent who signed him up would have checked him out, he would not have even been able to get a lease. Close to 100 listings on the court dockets since 1993. Did not know about the court listings available on the web at the time or I would have checked him out, the real estate agent told me they check out financial, they did not. My bad, follow up, follow up and ask more questions. This guy is sitting at the transition center being paroled the 20th of next month. He did manage to get his stuff out last weekend and I have someone cleaning out the stuff, which includes a home made paint booth, so that it can be rented again.

Another unit is shared by two people, one I finally got a hold of yesterday and told them they have three days to get their stuff out. The other was going strong a year ago when we had the hail storms here, but now back to his trailer house repairs and he is slow.

The third shop is rented to a regional sports retailer and they have been very good.

One office is rented to a guy with a retail fish business who has always been slow, he has some personal problems but seems to be getting back on his feet again. Funny thing is that in the nine years that I have owned the building he has never run his fish and aquarium business but always talks about getting it going again.

One office is rented to the mobile home repair guy branching out into the house waterfall business, who knows for how long?

The other two offices have been empty for about a year and a half, which is normal as there has always been more than an adequate supply of office space in this town and they are not in a prime location.

My best bet is to put the building up for sale as our good times or bad times always follow the rest of the county by about a year and a half.
 
Gatorboy said:
Yes, we are in a recession. Tighten up your bootstraps.
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That is really going to be true today, in the premarket I have one stock down over 19% and another down close to 10%. Most of the other stocks are in real estate investment trusts so the drop in the rates should be good for them.:idea:
 
We are entering a period of correction right now. Real estate is going through a similar bust like the dot.com bubble/bust. People got stupid and allowed upward price momentum to drive housing prices to unsustainable levels, and what goes up, must come down. Add in the idiot lenders that loaned money to anyone who was breathing strong enough to fog a mirror and you will have even more volitility.

It will all shake out as long as the government doesn't intervene too much and cause the correction to last longer than it should. The people who overbought and the lenders who overlent need to feel the pain and pay the price so they learn their economic lesson. If the government steps in to ease their pain, they will just do the same thing over again in anticipation of yet another government bailout.

Personal responsibility....what a concept.
 
Cityboy said:
We are entering a period of correction right now. Real estate is going through a similar bust like the dot.com bubble/bust. People got stupid and allowed upward price momentum to drive housing prices to unsustainable levels, and what goes up, must come down. Add in the idiot lenders that loaned money to anyone who was breathing strong enough to fog a mirror and you will have even more volitility.

It will all shake out as long as the government doesn't intervene too much and cause the correction to last longer than it should. The people who overbought and the lenders who overlent need to feel the pain and pay the price so they learn their economic lesson. If the government steps in to ease their pain, they will just do the same thing over again in anticipation of yet another government bailout.

Personal responsibility....what a concept.
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Are we going to see a period of correction or major adjustment is the real question? I fear it will have to be more than an adjustment, a major correction will have to take place before it is resolved. Easy money is never easy. Too many people have been able to to makes tons of money by short term investing in the stock market, housing market and on the backs of others that have been financially responsible. My greatest fear is a major devaluation in our dollar versus the rest of the world and it appears to be happening now. I like many of you have recently sold most of my real estate and investments assets that I felt might take a hit and banked a sum of money. Now I must think about what that money will or will not buy in the future. Dollar rich and assets poor or should you be assets rich and dollar poor, that is the million dollar question to answer? :idea:
 
I read about the Fed 3/4 drop this morning and just shook my head .
WE may not be in the "middle" of a recession but you can damn well bet we are at the "beginnings" of one . WE will be lucky if it does not go to a full blown "Depression" before its over .

I think the feds made a foolish mistake . They are also taking on the Sub Prime loan thing and getting way too involved . The market needs to correct itself and all the "prop ups" in the world will not change it from eventually happening .

I watched the CNN debate last night where the Demo candidates were hollering for the government to intervene and blaming the lenders for everything .

Did the lenders twist some bodies arm to take the loan and sign the loan papers ? Did these borrowers even read the loan contract ? If the banks made bad risk loans ,and got burned ,they have nobody to blame but themselves . If the borrowers did not read the loan papers and got burned they ALSO have nobody to blame but themselves .

Stop the whining !

Live within your means and stop trying to stay up with the Jones . The Jones are hocked up to there butt too!!! Maybe it would be better if we passed a new law stating
“All ignorant/blind people who cannot understand what loans are should not be allowed to obtain one “


Now all this latest Fed cut will do is cause people to try to reconsolidate their existing loan which they cannot pay for and then they will automatically run right out and try to borrow some more money to buy more crap they can’t afford and put themselves even deeper in debt .

The banks will get more money rewriting the new loans and collecting more fees . So eventually all the benefits of this is going to blow up again in the future .

The fuse just got a little longer is all .


My advice is buy GOLD Now . Mark my words ,it will go higher .Much higher .

NOTE: MY 2 cents only , your mileage may vary
 
It's going to be interesting because it's an election year.

The Democrats are running the house and the senate so they don't want to look like they aren't doing anything. The Republicans want to gain back the power position so a lot of pressure will be on GWB to do whatever is possible.

I suspect IF there is going to be a big recession it won't happen until after the election.
 
mtntopper said:
Are we going to see a period of correction or major adjustment is the real question? I fear it will have to be more than an adjustment, a major correction will have to take place before it is resolved. Easy money is never easy. Too many people have been able to to makes tons of money by short term investing in the stock market, housing market and on the backs of others that have been financially responsible. My greatest fear is a major devaluation in our dollar versus the rest of the world and it appears to be happening now. I like many of you have recently sold most of my real estate and investments assets that I felt might take a hit and banked a sum of money. Now I must think about what that money will or will not buy in the future. Dollar rich and assets poor or should you be assets rich and dollar poor, that is the million dollar question to answer? :idea:
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It will vary by region where real estate is concerned. Some regions, like California and Florida are already suffering and will likely get worse for a while. I think all regions will see real estate prices drop to some extent. What we all need to remember is that corrections are inevitable and the news media thrives on bad news. It will not likely be as bad as the media predicts overall. Depending on how you are invested now, what industry you primarily depend on for your current income, and whether or not you will need to sell your home or other real estate holdings in the next 5-7 years will impact how you fare during this correction.

I am quite pleased to have sold my property in Georgia before it got worse. I was able to negotiate a good deal on a property in OKC as well. Prices are adjusting here, but it is offset by the increase in oil prices as oil well owners here are cranking up their production. Lots of oil and natural gas jobs with good income out here, so property values should not take a big hit like some regions will.

I'm still buying stock and bond funds on a dollar-cost averaging basis for my retirement savings because I've got over 20 years before I plan to need income from those funds and the time to buy is when the prices are down. I don't feel the pessimism that many of you guys are feeling right now because I see this as simply part of the economic cycle; this is not the first time this has happened.

Dollar rich, asset poor? I'd say debt free, asset holding & purchasing after it all shakes out, and building up the dollar pool to be ready to buy at bargain rates when we bottom out and begin climbing up once again. This is not the end of the world guys, and it might just open up some incredible opportunities for those who are prepared to take advantage of them.
 
REDDOGTWO said:
Just kicked one guy out, if the real estate agent who signed him up would have checked him out, he would not have even been able to get a lease.
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Reminds me of a guy who stiffed me and my company over 100k in debt. He closed his shop doors. Guess what, he opened another company up with some other guys, and when he looked for a line of credit from us (with his "new" company), and we told him no, he now wants something in writing as to why we denied him because he's thinking of suing us because we won't sell to him on a house "charge" account.
 
dzalphakilo said:
Reminds me of a guy who stiffed me and my company over 100k in debt. He closed his shop doors. Guess what, he opened another company up with some other guys, and when he looked for a line of credit from us (with his "new" company), and we told him no, he now wants something in writing as to why we denied him because he's thinking of suing us because we won't sell to him on a house "charge" account.
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There are some out there whose whole goal in life is to play the system to their benefit to the detriment of others.
 
I believe that like most things, it comes down to personal responsibility. The sub prime problem, real estate valuation problem and the on comming recession is the result of people at all levels not being responsible. We are greedy by nature and always wanting more. In fact there isn't a single aspect of life as we know it that doesn't promote greed or the premise of having more in some way. Advertising is a good example. The message to go out and get an education so you can get a good job that pays well with the pays well part being the focus and the education part being a necessary evil to the end result. Where the premise of having a good life is about NOT having to worry about money vs being a good person. Generally speaking, who wouldn't want that new car or truck, or house or kitchen or riding mower or new outfit or vacation getaway etc..etc. Our lives are so geared to the "Stuff" part of life that having is more important than being good stewards.

I just find it interesting how all this stuff is tied to human nature and nobody (Main stream discussions) seems to talk about that part.

Anyway, just my $.02
 
If it is one thing I have drilled into my son's heads is that you have to work for what you want.
I (and they, now) pride themselves on taking junk and making it work. In fact, of the 8 snow mobiles we own, we only purchased one of them. They all run and are reliable. We haul tons of wood all winter long with them.
Why? 'Cause I don't want the debt on my head and they need to learn that it is ok to not have something new for the sake of it being new.
As far as the Fed's go, it really fries my cookies that I am being penalized because I pay my mortgage on time. Maybe I should default and I'll get bailed out. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm:rolleyes:
 
I have always believed in living well within my means. Sometimes I wonder if that is not a good idea. Why not live it up and let the government bail me out along with the other idiots when the economy goes to pot?
 
Crude oil hit $108 today, they are talking about another rate cut again, the market is down again. I do believe that we are in it.
 
I am not sure that we are in a recession but I think we are darn close. Rate cut, that is a good start, but late. Should have been months ago and bigger than the last one! We don't yet have inflation, but the housing market in many areas is in deflation and that is certainly not helping. Stocks are bottoming out, or certainly going down like a rock and maybe not near bottom, but its clear much of the market is over-valued.

By the way, with oil at $108, why are we not pumping out the Nebraska/Dakota oil reserve, supposedly it is bigger than the Prudhoe bay find, and potentially big enough to supply us for DECADES to come?!?
 
just heard in the news last week fed may have droped rates but the rates on the credit cards are going up 5%.

Job market here is terrible. Even one of our local adoption agencies just layed off 12 people.
 
B_Skurka said:
I am not sure that we are in a recession but I think we are darn close. Rate cut, that is a good start, but late. Should have been months ago and bigger than the last one! We don't yet have inflation, but the housing market in many areas is in deflation and that is certainly not helping. Stocks are bottoming out, or certainly going down like a rock and maybe not near bottom, but its clear much of the market is over-valued.

By the way, with oil at $108, why are we not pumping out the Nebraska/Dakota oil reserve, supposedly it is bigger than the Prudhoe bay find, and potentially big enough to supply us for DECADES to come?!?
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Bob, it is obvious that you do not do the grocery shopping in your family. It seems that every time a person goes to the store something is higher than the last time. Milk, eggs, other dairy products have gone up quite a bit in the last year, attributable to the competition for ethanol in the grain markets.

They are pumping and searching for a lot more oil in North Dakota, the impact of high oil prices in the last year has caused the number of rigs to increase substantially. The impact on roads and housing in the western part of the state has not been seen since the last oil boom in the country.

One of the problems of oil in western North Dakota is that there is no structure to get the oil out of the state, they receive a lot less per barrel there due to the problems of infrastructure.
 
Actually I do a lot of shopping at the grocery store!

But overall inflation is not yet a factor. While some products are up, others are not. Yes, many food prices are up. But many semi-durables are very flat.
 
it's not just you guys and girls in the US that are feeling a recession coming....here in the UK i have been watching things closely and things dont look good.....housing market crash is just around the corner in my opinion and job cuts are all over the UK.

Northern Rock is in a bad way and with the government sticking their oar in it's made it a lot worse.....all our banks are tightening up the purse strings and borrowing money is harder than ever.

Banks bought it on over here with the governments help lending larger amounts of money to home owners and pushed the housing market through the roof....the foolish borrowers are going to lose out big time soon where as the non borrowers like myself will be laughing all the way....money i never borrowed yet saved instead will buy lots of bargains when everything crashes.

:shitHitFan:
 
if they're really concerned about the housing market, why not drop mortgage rates again -- that would allow people to refinance and not need a bailout, wouldn't it?
 
rback33 said:
OK... So I am trying NOT to bash on the :newbie: and Dave did a much better job than I, but :wtf:...
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I figured it out after thinking about it some more...he voted No to the Recession because he thinks we are in a Depression instead.
 
DaveNay said:
I figured it out after thinking about it some more...he voted No to the Recession because he thinks we are in a Depression instead.
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Damn Dave. Good eye! I COMPLETELY missed that. Something seemed odd, but I missed what it was.:thumb:
 
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