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More on the way?

Rusty Shackleford

Rusty Shackleford

Automotive M.D.
Sure seems like it. Possibility is growing for some heavy-duty shit in PA tomorrow. And this is just as of this morning. We all know how it can build, or die, within a moment's notice:

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IN CENTRAL
PA WITH A DUAL HEAVY RAIN/SVR WX THREAT UNFOLDING...AS THE COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPLCHNS. THE MID-UPPER LOW WILL TREND
TOWARD A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT...WITH A STRENGTHENING BELT OF DEEP
LAYER/MOIST SWLY FLOW OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S IN
ADVANCE OF THE SHARP COLD FRONT.

EARLY MORNING LLVL STABILITY/POS LI/S VIA PRESSURE DRIVEN
CHANNELING AND ESE MARITIME FLOW WILL ERODE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS
WARM FNT LIFTS NEWD THRU THE DAY. MODEL DATA INDICATES A DIURNALLY
DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE WARM
FNT AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FNT. PRE-FRONTAL INSOLATION
SHOULD LEAD TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /1000-2000 J PER KG ML CAPE/
GIVEN INCREASINGLY MOIST BLYR WITH SFC DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE
60S. AMPLE LG SCALE FORCING...DEEP LYR SHEAR AND CAPE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ORGANIZED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND INTENSE RAIN RATES LKLY GIVEN
ABV NORMAL PWATS AND +3-4SD V-WINDS. 1-3HR FFG IS GENERALLY BTWN
1.5-3 INCHES AND SYSTEM SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE. THEREFORE THREAT OF
FLOODING WILL BE LOCALIZED.

SPC HAS BASICALLY CARRIED OVER THE DY3 SLGT RISK AREA INTO DY2
WHICH ESSENTIALLY COVERS FROM I-80 SOUTH TO THE MD LINE. WHILE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL FROM WHAT SHOULD BE A MAINLY LINEAR CONVECTIVE
MODE...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED-CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES OVER S-CENTRAL AND SERN PA. THE FAVORABLE TORNADO
INGREDIENTS ARE FCST TO BE IN PLACE...INCLUDING 20-30KT 0-1KM
SHEAR AND 0-3KM EHI VALUES BTWN 2-4 M2/S2. 0-1KM SHEAR HAS SHOWN
TO DELINEATE TORNADIC VS. NON-TORNADIC ENVIRONMENTS IN CENTRAL PA.
THE CONDITIONAL THREAT ARISES FROM 1) SUFFICIENT WARM SECTOR
DESTABILIZATION NEAR/SOUTH OF WARM FNT AND 2) SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OUT AHEAD OF COLD FNT WHERE
CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE MORE LINEAR. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
S-CENTRAL/SERN PA IS UPGRADED TO A CATG MODERATE RISK EITHER LATER
TODAY OR ON DY1...WHICH IS SUGGESTED IN THE SPC DY2 OUTLOOK.

THE COLD FNT SHOULD CLEAR THE WRN 1/2 OF THE CWA BY 00Z AND BE
EXITING ERN PA AROUND DAY BREAK SAT. DRY SLOT SHOULD CUT OFF PCPN
ABRUPTLY BEHIND THE FNT WITH ONLY A LOW CHC FOR ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS.
Click to expand...
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
 
We got about the best possible rain one could ask for last night. Farmers have to be extremely happy. It started raining around 10:00 PM and rained right up until 6:00 this morning. We probably only got 3/4's of an inch the whole night. Everything just soaked in. It was much needed around here.
 
thcri said:
We got about the best possible rain one could ask for last night. Farmers have to be extremely happy. It started raining around 10:00 PM and rained right up until 6:00 this morning. We probably only got 3/4's of an inch the whole night. Everything just soaked in. It was much needed around here.
Click to expand...

Good. That's what we need, too. Been a dry spell this year in our area. We've had rain, but not enough in the way of a good soaker.

Remember:

Rain makes corn
Corn makes whiskey :biggrin:
 
We just may have an infinite energy situation here, my friend.

You work on the specifics. I'll go get some corn and a bottle of whiskey :yum:
 
Details for Thursday, May 31
Sun and clouds mixed. High around 70F. Winds E at 10 to 20 mph.
Evening: Showers and thundershowers this evening, then cloudy with rain likely overnight...perhaps a rumble of thunder. Low 56F. Winds ENE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 80%. Rainfall near a half an inch.
 
Yall better keep quiet!!!!!
I got a motorcycle camp and ride starting tomorrow night to Sunday
So please keep it in your own area!!!!!
 
Well, we just got finished with 2 days of rain here. Lots of lightning both nights and some big winds but really not all that much rain, about 1" over the 2 nights. That's good though, just what we needed.

It dried out enough by this afternoon that I did some tree trimming.

Tomorrow I might try and get into the pasture and do some mowing but I've got to finish early 'coz I've got to take the dog to the vet again. I've never seen an animal with allergies like my poor Nikki. She's really suffering. She's biting herself to death.

Oh, tomorrow it' supposed to be in the mid 80's and then back up to the mid 90's. After the rain you can bet that it's going to be as humid as hell. :hammer::hammer::hammer:
 
Glad none of them extend up here. Sure is chilly (54) and made me go back for a sweatshirt to work outside.
 
Been getting showers for most of the day. I ran the weedeater and mowed earlier but then it beat down pretty good so I decided to goof off and try to stay off my feet. Just had to close the windows for a while. Got chilly in here and when I pointed that out to the wife I got smacked!:whistling:
 
They have called one up here till midnight. Looks like the line is coming straight up across the whole state. Been raining hard off and on most of the day.
 
We got hammered a few hours ago . It was kind of strange . No thunder ,etc .. , just all of a sudden high winds and very heavy rain .
 
jjust rain here, wind aint even an issue. couple thunder rumbles maybe a small flash or two. it will probably wait till later tonight now that i cant chase it :glare:
 
There is a very mean looking line from State College clean up into NY. They just issued a severe thunderstorm warning for us as well as a tornado watch. Going to get dicey for the next few hours.
 
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