EV sales are just getting started.

[mbsieg]

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a46340514/ev-sales-are-just-getting-started/

EV Sales Are Just Getting Started
You may have seen dire headlines that EV sales have dried up. They haven't. Electric vehicles sold reasonably well in 2023, and here's our forecast for the coming year.
Over the past few months, multiple media outlets have suggested U.S. sales of electric vehicles are losing steam, or have stalled out, or look grim for 2024, or that makers, dealers, and buyers are dawdling. Even Hertz, which was going all in on EVs two years ago, is now reducing its EV fleet. What's going on? Some point to carmakers delaying or reducing previous EV investments; others suggest the U.S. (and other nations won't hit their goals for EV sales percentages in 2030 or 2035. A few even question whether the EV transition will happen at all.

There's just one little problem: Last year, U.S. sales of EVs were the highest ever, both in sheer numbers and as a percentage of the overall new-car market. Global sales: ditto. The EV Sales Tracker from EVadoption estimates nearly 1.2 million battery-electric vehicles and another 190,000 plug-in hybrids were sold in 2023, totaling 1.36 million vehicles. That's 8.8 percent of the total of 15.5 million, per Wards Intelligence—and it represents EVs' highest-ever share of new-car sales.

Moreover, 2024 is expected to set another new record for volume of EVs sold and their share of the total market. Colin McKerracher of Bloomberg projects 2024 EV sales in the U.S. at just under 1.9 million units, making up 13 percent of new-car purchases. This year should see fewer of the supply constraints that hobbled availability over the last four years. Depending on a host of factors, some analysts suggest overall vehicle sales could be 1 million vehicles or more higher than last year.

 

[FrancSevin]

My opinion: Ev's are here to stay however, currently, they have approached market saturation. Until range and charging insues make them more consistent with user needs, their growth will be hindered.

Impediments in the way;
Initial costs are too high for comparable IC units. Remove government subsidies and sales will dry to near zero.

Range,; If it takes hours to full charge on a road trip then anyone wanting to travel more than 150 miles, (that's 300 each way) is not interested.

Capacity: Most EV's hold two or four passengers. Few can tow anything large, like a camper, with any range. I don't believe anyone wants to pull a camper 100 miles and then deal with an inability to charge the vehicle and drive home.

A good comparison would be a motor cycle for commuting to work. I did it for years for economy and yes, for fun. The EV may well fill that bill with the added bonus of a dry trip on rainy cold days. Otherwise, relatively impractical as a primary vehicle for a majority of people.

I have had several conversations with die hard EV enthusiast. Not a one was willing to give up their backup second vehicle, with an IC engine, on which they could count.

The target 100% EV in 2035is impractical. No government mandate will ensure the program's success. EV sales willrise whenthe product meets the needs and desires of the customer. We aren't there yet.

NOT EVEN CLOSE.

 

[Doc]

Franc, i sure do not think EV's are even close to market saturation. Breaking a record for sales again in 2024 would indicate that.

EV's remind me of flat screen TV's and Personal computers. Both started out slow. Price kept most of us waiting on the sidelines. I think it is the same with EV's. Once they break the price point barrier I think EV's will make a great 2nd vehicle or 3rd vehicle for many homes in the US. Both urban and rural.

I live 20 miles from nearest town. Most shopping is done 35 to 50 miles away. But an EV could fill that need for back and forth running. If price was lower I would consider one on my next purchase as long as I could charge it at home nightly.
I would still have an ICE for other trips and a truck for hauling stuff, but that is what I currently have. An EV could easily fit in the mix. Price and price alone keeps me from ever considering them.

I think price will come down much like it did for flat screen TV's and for personal computers. Once that happens the majority of homes in the US will own an EV. I never see it completely replacing the ICE. That is a pipedream. But I see it filling a need for a lot of us.

 

[FrancSevin]

Franc, i sure do not think EV's are even close to market saturation. Breaking a record for sales again in 2024 would indicate that.

EV's remind me of flat screen TV's and Personal computers. Both started out slow. Price kept most of us waiting on the sidelines. I think it is the same with EV's. Once they break the price point barrier I think EV's will make a great 2nd vehicle or 3rd vehicle for many homes in the US. Both urban and rural.

I live 20 miles from nearest town. Most shopping is done 35 to 50 miles away. But an EV could fill that need for back and forth running. If price was lower I would consider one on my next purchase as long as I could charge it at home nightly.
I would still have an ICE for other trips and a truck for hauling stuff, but that is what I currently have. An EV could easily fit in the mix. Price and price alone keeps me from ever considering them.

I think price will come down much like it did for flat screen TV's and for personal computers. Once that happens the majority of homes in the US will own an EV. I never see it completely replacing the ICE. That is a pipedream. But I see it filling a need for a lot of us.

I do believe the EV future is a bright one. Hell, I own Tesla stock. ( It is headed down of late)

I just don't see it in 2024. EV producers, like Ford and GM, are slowing down of shutting down programs. Tesla is doing well, but their product has limited markets. At least here in the USA.

Like you, I don't see 100% EV as a reality, ever. At the same time, I think the product has it's place, currently and better when, comprehensively, the technology improves. In the meanwhile, it simply doesn't meet all the needs of a majority of American lifestyles. Fords lightning is a cute pick-up. But I am not a virtue buyer. Personally, I couldn't use it in my fleet.

Now that I am retired ( well sorta) I plan to travel, as I have dreamed to do most of my working life. EV does not fit the plan of towing my relatively small camper across the country.

I don't see EV in my future. I seriously doubt I am alone.

 

[NorthernRedneck]

I'm not totally against ev's. I just think we are a long way off of being able to fully switch to electric. The vehicles are there and I guarantee that in time, they will solve the range issues.

It's the background infrastructure that scares me. Lack of charging infrastructure along routes. Antique hydro infrastructure that can't even support current demands let alone millions of electric vehicles being charged at any given time. I'm also afraid of what my hydro bill will look like. So many uncertainties. We have 5 vehicles on the road within our household. In this economy, I don't see our kids being able to afford their own place any time soon which means they need their own transportation. How many chargers will my house support? Will I have to upgrade my electrical panel to something commercial to support that many chargers? And can I install them anywhere? Kinda hard parking 5 vehicles all right next to the house.

My oldest son bought his first car for $750. Put 1800 into it and was on the road. My second oldest...similar story. On a part time job in high school, how will our future children be able to afford to buy a cheap vehicle? And a cheap electric vehicle will be most likely at the end of it's battery life. So many questions that nobody has answers to.

 

[mbsieg]

I'm not totally against ev's. I just think we are a long way off of being able to fully switch to electric. The vehicles are there and I guarantee that in time, they will solve the range issues.

It's the background infrastructure that scares me. Lack of charging infrastructure along routes. Antique hydro infrastructure that can't even support current demands let alone millions of electric vehicles being charged at any given time. I'm also afraid of what my hydro bill will look like. So many uncertainties. We have 5 vehicles on the road within our household. In this economy, I don't see our kids being able to afford their own place any time soon which means they need their own transportation. How many chargers will my house support? Will I have to upgrade my electrical panel to something commercial to support that many chargers? And can I install them anywhere? Kinda hard parking 5 vehicles all right next to the house.

My oldest son bought his first car for $750. Put 1800 into it and was on the road. My second oldest...similar story. On a part time job in high school, how will our future children be able to afford to buy a cheap vehicle? And a cheap electric vehicle will be most likely at the end of it's battery life. So many questions that nobody has answers to.

I've been doing an experiment, my wife drives the EV to work every day. Granted it's not that far. She puts about 20 mi a day on. More if we are running a youngins around to sports. An average day is about 20 miles though. I started using a 16 amp 240 volt charger (smallest level 2 charger). It charges at 3.5 KW an hour. Town trips and to work and such never go under 2.0 mi to the kilowatt. Easy math says we use 10 KWH a day. It takes less than 3 hours to charge the truck. It would take 10 hours using the 110 volt charger (this is considered a level 1 charger). The 110 volt charger uses 1.2 KW an hour. That would be about the equivalent of leaving a 1500 watt space heater on. Yes it does seem like Canada is behind even the US when it comes to infrastructure. I don't think anybody's going to be forcing you to buy an EV anytime soon. They may think they are, but it's not going to work.

Basically what I'm getting at it doesn't take that much energy to charge an EV with smaller chargers it's just slower. Remember the huge ordeal when everybody was putting central air in. Many people said the grid would never handle that either. The utilities did what they had to do to get enough power to make it work. The one nice thing is you can charge your vehicle in the middle of the night when the demand is very low.

 

[FrancSevin]

I've been doing an experiment, my wife drives the EV to work every day. Granted it's not that far. She puts about 20 mi a day on. More if we are running a youngins around to sports. An average day is about 20 miles though. I started using a 16 amp 240 volt charger (smallest level 2 charger). It charges at 3.5 KW an hour. Town trips and to work and such never go under 2.0 mi to the kilowatt. Easy math says we use 10 KWH a day. It takes less than 3 hours to charge the truck. It would take 10 hours using the 110 volt charger (this is considered a level 1 charger). The 110 volt charger uses 1.2 KW an hour. That would be about the equivalent of leaving a 1500 watt space heater on. Yes it does seem like Canada is behind even the US when it comes to infrastructure. I don't think anybody's going to be forcing you to buy an EV anytime soon. They may think they are, but it's not going to work.

Basically what I'm getting at it doesn't take that much energy to charge an EV with smaller chargers it's just slower. Remember the huge ordeal when everybody was putting central air in. Many people said the grid would never handle that either. The utilities did what they had to do to get enough power to make it work. The one nice thing is you can charge your vehicle in the middle of the night when the demand is very low.

I don't remember grid issues with AC but, OK. It is a fact that we cannot just pass aside.

I do remember that no government has ever mandated every building must have AC. The grid improved to meet the demand. However, because of planet saving warriors in our government, the grid has trouble doing so today.

Jus' sayin'.

BTW,,, I don't think many AC units are pressing the grid today. Imagine the strain when they are !

Are you ever going to understand the point?

 

[m1west]

I think it should be rolled out and be a choice not a mandate. If people buy them and the technology evolves, more people will buy them. But to be forced to transition to something that is not ready to be practical for the masses, is a no go. If it truly is a better mouse trap the masses will buy it.

 

[mbsieg]

I think it should be rolled out and be a choice not a mandate. If people buy them and the technology evolves, more people will buy them. But to be forced to transition to something that is not ready to be practical for the masses, is a no go. If it truly is a better mouse trap the masses will buy it.

Agree 100%

 

[bczoom]

Hertz sells off Tesla fleet at discounted price as EV sales slump

Car rental giant Hertz is selling Tesla models for as low was $25,000.

finance.yahoo.com

Hertz is dumping Teslas onto the used car market. The rental car agency made a huge mis-step by ordering too many electric cars, and now it’s rushing to offload 30,000 EVs. Tesla makes up roughly one-third of all of Hertz’s global EV fleet.

Since January, Hertz has been aggressively offloading teslas at the nationwide average price of roughly $25,000, according to CNBC. Earlier this year in a regulatory filing, Hertz said, “expenses related to collision and damage, primarily associated with EV, remained high.” in the first quarter, Hertz took a $195 million write-down for depreciation of its EVS.

Hertz’s shifting attitude towards tesla and evs in general comes amid a slump in demand for these energy-friendly models. The price tag for a used EV plunged nearly 32 percent in March compared to a year ago, according to iseecars, led by a 29 percent drop for a used Tesla. Compare that to a minor 3.6 percent drop for the average used car during the same period.

 

[Melensdad]

Hertz sells off Tesla fleet at discounted price as EV sales slump

Car rental giant Hertz is selling Tesla models for as low was $25,000.

finance.yahoo.com

Hertz is dumping Teslas onto the used car market. The rental car agency made a huge mis-step by ordering too many electric cars, and now it’s rushing to offload 30,000 EVs. Tesla makes up roughly one-third of all of Hertz’s global EV fleet.

Since January, Hertz has been aggressively offloading teslas at the nationwide average price of roughly $25,000, according to CNBC. Earlier this year in a regulatory filing, Hertz said, “expenses related to collision and damage, primarily associated with EV, remained high.” in the first quarter, Hertz took a $195 million write-down for depreciation of its EVS.

Hertz’s shifting attitude towards tesla and evs in general comes amid a slump in demand for these energy-friendly models. The price tag for a used EV plunged nearly 32 percent in March compared to a year ago, according to iseecars, led by a 29 percent drop for a used Tesla. Compare that to a minor 3.6 percent drop for the average used car during the same period.

True, but the market is still growing.

One of my neighbors picked up a used Tesla Model 3.

 

[mbsieg]

Hertz sells off Tesla fleet at discounted price as EV sales slump

Car rental giant Hertz is selling Tesla models for as low was $25,000.

finance.yahoo.com

Hertz is dumping Teslas onto the used car market. The rental car agency made a huge mis-step by ordering too many electric cars, and now it’s rushing to offload 30,000 EVs. Tesla makes up roughly one-third of all of Hertz’s global EV fleet.

Since January, Hertz has been aggressively offloading teslas at the nationwide average price of roughly $25,000, according to CNBC. Earlier this year in a regulatory filing, Hertz said, “expenses related to collision and damage, primarily associated with EV, remained high.” in the first quarter, Hertz took a $195 million write-down for depreciation of its EVS.

Hertz’s shifting attitude towards tesla and evs in general comes amid a slump in demand for these energy-friendly models. The price tag for a used EV plunged nearly 32 percent in March compared to a year ago, according to iseecars, led by a 29 percent drop for a used Tesla. Compare that to a minor 3.6 percent drop for the average used car during the same period.

This is the reason EVS don't work for Hertz. No education, no instruction. Here it is. have fun. Copied and pasted from a Facebook group.


EV Rental Rookies : I had dinner with a couple the other evening and they told that familiar horror story about their first experience in a rented EV . Arriving in Fort Myers they were given a Tesla without any orientation . After driving to their onward destination they got down to 18% when arriving at a charging station in a parking ramp . They never found the station . A family member researched chargers for them and texted the location of a charger near by . They arrived in their Tesla at an Walmart ELECTRIFY AMERICAN place , only to find 5 vehicles ahead of them waiting their turn . Some broken stations and one Porche charging at 90% . After two hours wait someone knocked on their window to inform them that the EA would not charge a Tesla . They eventually got to a Supercharger with 6% .

Like it or not EV ownership is growing. Ford keeps posting triple digit % increases in ownership over last year. New charging stations are getting installed all the time. Maybe not with biden's crappy nevi program. But people are seeing the opportunity to make money. And people are seeing the opportunity to save money with an EV. Big oil is fighting it with as much FUD as they can. But fortunately they raise the prices on gasoline. All that does is increase EV sales.

 

[Smilingreen]

New Charging stations maybe being put in, but what is the ratio of new stations being put in vs corporations tearing theirs out because they were never used and the reserved spots took up valuable real estate that regular ICE cars needed to park?

Warning: EV Charging Stations Often Don’t Work

The more EVs hit the road, the worse the charging infrastructure reliability seems to get.

www.forbes.com

 

[mbsieg]

New Charging stations maybe being put in, but what is the ratio of new stations being put in vs corporations tearing theirs out because they were never used and the reserved spots took up valuable real estate that regular ICE cars needed to park?

Warning: EV Charging Stations Often Don’t Work

The more EVs hit the road, the worse the charging infrastructure reliability seems to get.

www.forbes.com

Did you post the link to the wrong article? There's no reference to anyone taking out charging stations. Just the crappy electrify America Network. Which was started because of a government program fineing Volkswagen. Another reason government should not be involved. Ea stations have tons of problems. And they don't ever seem to get them figured out or fixed. Using the Tesla Network has been a game changer. It's just easy you plug in it charges time after time after time.

 

[Smilingreen]

I can re-fuel my ICE car or truck completely in under 3 minutes and be on my way. No sitting in line for hours waiting for my chance to get to a public charger and then wait another 40 minutes to an hour for half a charge. Their is a niche market for this EV technology, but most of the Boomer generation will never adopt it. Maybe 30 or 40% of the Gen X will ever adopt it. Millennials want to adopt it, but they are having such major problems finding and affording a apartment, so it will be decades before they buy a new EV vehicle. I am not seeing any charging stations at apartments.......that can be an issue. Gen Z still lives in Mom and Dads basement and they ride their skateboard or electric scooter to the coffee shop in hopes their grandparents or parents kick the bucket early and leave them a bunch of money......which they will promptly blow at the coffee shop and the Apple Boutique at the mall.

Who wants to sit several hours in line to top off your charge? I suspect most employers won't excuse you from being late to work by several hours, a couple of times a week, because you had to wait in line to charge your car. Maybe for city dwellers that live 2 miles from work and a block from the grocery store, an EV would be logical. Most people who live in rural areas will never adopt the EV vehicles. In many of the hot suburban areas, new subdivisions are popping up everywhere, full of houses being built, but as rental communities only. Renting homes is the wave of the future. I doubt the leasing companies are going to allow you to wire in a 220 VAC circuit to the outside just so you can charge your vehicle.

What years I have left to live are too precious to waste time waiting for my vehicle to charge. That is my $.02 on the subject matter.

 

[Smilingreen]

The State of Tennessee does not not even have 400 public charging stations in all 42,144 square miles. If the stations were all evenly spaced out, (which they aren't, they are only in major cities) you would have to drive 120 miles just to locate a public EV charging station. EV's are also having issues with them holding their value. A 2018 Tesla Model 3 is only worth less than $10k on trade in. A chevy Bolt is worth less than $7K on trade in. Must have something to do with their forever shrinking fuel tanks.....

 

[Smilingreen]

Interesting to see just how many EV's are registered in the US and what states.